Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday Night: Cloudy. Low: 60
Tuesday: Rain. High: 70
Tuesday Night: Rain. Low:61
Wednesday: Scattered showers throughout morning and afternoon. High: 72
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 46
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Discussion:
Grab a rain jacket or an umbrella tomorrow morning. Moisture will be moving into the region overnight, leading to showers tomorrow morning and throughout the day. Showers will continue into Wednesday morning until a cold front pushes through the region, bringing a mass of colder, drier air into central Missouri later Wednesday.
Forecasters: Herion, Cook, Kobielusz
Date Issued: 10/10/2022 5:00 PM CDT
For our forecast, we relied on the GFS. Both the GFS and NAM were within two degrees of accuracy and both were in agreement with the location of a high pressure system over Alabama and the Appalachian Mountain Range. We also consulted with the NBM for temperature guidance. Our problem of the day is the timing of the arrival of a cold front and precipitation amounts.
At the upper levels, the GFS shows the upper-level jet and a trough entering mid-Missouri. It begins to move in during Tuesday and the jet stream itself moves in late into Wednesday.
At the mid levels, with the high pressure system over the Southeast moving out, the winds will shift to the south bringing moisture to mid-Missouri. Clouds will begin to form Monday night, which will act as insulation to keep Monday night temps in the 60s. There seems to be two fronts moving in through Central Plains Tuesday to Wednesday. The first wave will come from the Southwest with weaker vorticity. The low-level jet is bringing moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico saturating both the 500 and 700 MB levels. The bulk of our rainfall will fall during Tuesday. Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) runs show ranges between a quarter of an inch and half an inch on Tuesday. Model soundings were consulted to determine the arrival of the rain to be in the late morning hours of Tuesday. Most will be showers over the area but we cannot rule out a chance for a stray thunderstorm over the forecast area. There will be a break during the early part of Wednesday but shortly after a second wave will move through.
Following suit with the first wave, this wave brings both stronger levels of vorticity at 500 MB and vertical velocity at 700 MB. The low-level jet still brings up moisture from the south and winds from the southwest. This will change into Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. Winds will shift to the NW and dry air will follow. QPF readings show an additional tenth of an inch falling throughout Wednesday. This system could move out of mid-Missouri late Wednesday bringing dry air and a clear sky into late Thursday morning.
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