Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

        

     

Wednesday: Cloudy. High 82

 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 56

 

 

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 80

Thursday Night: Few clouds. Low: 46

 

 

 

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 58

 

 

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Discussion:    

Clouds have moved into the region, but temperatures will remain in the upper 70s for Wednesday and Thursday before a significant cool down later this week. While a cold front will pass through the region Wednesday night, the cooler air lags behind, not arriving until Friday when high temperatures will only reach the upper 50s. A stray shower can't be ruled out Wednesday as light rain ahead of the cold front has fallen across far northern Missouri and southern Iowa.

 

- Travis

 

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw, Travis

Date Issued: 10/05/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Although today and tomorrow will feature warm, slightly above average temperatures, a big cool-down is expected by the end of the week. An area of low pressure over IA will maneuver a cold front through MO this afternoon into the overnight, bringing with it a cloudy sky and isolated light showers. High pressure builds into the region by Friday as clouds exit. The GFS was preferred over the NAM due to its handling of moisture in the boundary layer.

In the upper-levels, low pressure is moving SE through southern IA, where more widespread precipitation is occurring. As it moves east Thursday night, it will begin to break down and become absorbed into the upper-level flow. 

Abundant mid-level moisture and vorticity associated with the low and corresponding cold front is moving through MO today, thus the increased cloud cover this morning. Strong cold air advection and an area of high pressure will succeed the frontal passage, especially in the overnight hours on Thursday. This will contribute to the cooler temperatures and decreasing clouds on Friday. Although a weak shortwave is poised northwest of the forecast area at the end of the period (something worth watching for future shifts), largely zonal flow should keep conditions steady through the start of the weekend. 

As has been noted for the past... too many days, model soundings show very little in the way of near-surface and surface moisture. This wedge of dry air should limit most precipitation from reaching the ground Wednesday, though an isolated light shower cannot be completely ruled out given the reflectivity echoes observed by KEAX to the west of the forecast area. Even drier and cooler conditions will work their way south with the passage of the cold front, leading to below-average temperatures by Friday.

- Shaw