Thursday, October 27, 2022

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  











Thursday Night:
Few clouds. Low: 39
 
 

 
Friday: Few clouds. High: 62
 

 
 


Friday Night:
Clear. Low: 40
 
 

 
Saturday: AM fog and partly cloudy during the day. High:62
 



Saturday Night:
Cloudy. Low: 48

 

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Discussion:

Persistence is the name of the forecast this week as low temperatures hover around 40 degrees and high temperatures sit near 60 degrees. Leave a few minutes early if you're headed anywhere Saturday morning as fog is expected in the area.
 
-Chirpich
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Forecasters: Chirpich, Rangel, VanUnnik

Date Issued: 10/27/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:
 
For this forecast, the 12Z run of the NAM was chosen as it had more of a consensus within its temperature spread, while GFS had more outliers that did not fit the curve. The main focus of this forecast period is the fog expected Saturday morning.

A high pressure system currently situated over Mid-Missouri will continue the calm weather pattern into the end of the week. However, a zonal flow starts to shift more meridional towards the end of the weekend, signaling a break in the fair weather. This shift is due to a low pressure system currently situated near Texas that moves into Mid-Missouri early Sunday morning. There is another low-pressure system near Nebraska that moves closer to Missouri, yet will not affect our CWA due to how weak it is. The southern low-pressure system is more significant, as it extends all the way up to 250mb and has stronger surface winds associated with it.
 
As the southern low-pressure system moves into Mid-Missouri, its counter-clockwise flow causes a southeasterly wind shift in Missouri, bringing in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This begins Saturday morning, and this moisture advection, along with a radiation inversion and a saturated temperature profile near the surface at 13Z Saturday morning, indicates the likelihood of fog.

The moisture builds Saturday night into Sunday as 12Z soundings display deep moisture from 650mb to 300mb, along with a low cloud deck near 850mb. Simultaneously, surface dewpoints and vorticity at 500mb both increase, setting the CWA up for showers on Sunday. Future forecasters should look at Sunday in particular as a chance for rain for Mid-Missouri.

-Chirpich

 

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