Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 47

 

  

 

Friday: Few clouds. High: 80

 
 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 59

 

 

 

Saturday: Clear. High: 81

 

Saturday Night: Increasing clouds. Low: 66

 

 

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Discussion:

After a cold week across Mid-Missouri, warmer temperatures are returning. Highs for Friday and Saturday stay in the low 80s range as we warm up into the weekend. Also, morning below freezing are no concern as we don't dip below the upper 40s in the next few days.

- Chirich

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Forecasters: Chirpich, VanUnnik, Rangel

Date Issued: 10/20/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

The 18z run of GFS was utilized for the forecast. In comparison to the NAM, the GFS had more accurate temperature forecasts when compared to the observed temperature at Sanborn Field this morning and afternoon. The problem of the day regards increased warming along with temperature fluctuations, and forecasting cloud coverage and moisture advection.

At 250 mb, a meridional air flow dominates CONUS with northwesterly winds until 06Z on Friday. A low pressure system to the northeast results in the northwesterly flow. As the low pressure system begins to weaken and rise northerly, the winds will shift back to a westerly component. The subtropical jet will begin to couple with the polar jet over the western United States at 21Z Saturday. This coupling will continue to move into the Midwest, however it will not impact temperatures for our forecast period.

At 500 mb, not much vorticity affects mid-Missouri, however, the little amount that we see is due to the aforementioned low pressure system near the Great Lakes.

The relative humidity at 700 mb reveals moisture in result of the low pressure system beginning to move east. The moisture will move out of Missouri on Friday at 00Z with a westerly wind shift. Saturday at 18Z, there will be an increase of moisture in midwestern Missouri in result of the low level jet, along with strong southerly flow. When consulting soundings for moisture content, increasing moisture around 800mb beginning Saturday around 21Z indicates an increase in cloud cover throughout the rest of the evening.

Due to the meridional flow, there is variable wind direction at 850mb, alternating from northwesterly to southwesterly. This results in warmer temperatures into the weekend. Solenoids over the Midwest and southerly wind will continue after Friday at 15Z. 

- Rangel