Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday: Showers early, Partly Cloudy. High: 69
Wednesday Night: Few clouds. Low: 45
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Low:64
Thursday Night: Clear. High: 39
Friday: Sunny. High: 71
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!
====================================================================
Discussion:
Finally, Rain! Much needed rain Wednesday morning will lead to drier and cooler temperatures through the mid-week before a small warm up as we enter the weekend.
Forecasters: Shaw, Russell, Travis
Date Issued: 10/12/2022 9:00 AM CDT
Rain and thunderstorms this morning are expected to give way to cooler and drier conditions to end out our week. An area of low pressure currently located over southern Canada is beginning to move south and west into the upper Mississippi river valley. A cold front associated with the low pressure is bringing showers and thunderstorms this morning with cooler temperatures this evening. A reinforcing cold front is expected to follow Thursday morning further pushing our temperatures to slightly below average. With the low positioned to our northeast throughout the entirety of the forecast period, northwest flow is expected to persist throughout the week keeping temperatures cooler and dry. Due to a better performance with precipitation timing as well as morning temperatures we sided more with the 12km NAM.
In the upper levels, a large trough associated with the area of low pressure located over the upper-Midwest and Canada brought an area of increased divergence at the 300-mb level associated with the cold front that is currently traversing through the region. A jet streak will enter the region Thursday morning bringing the earlier noted reinforcing cold front. Dry air will prevent any extensive cloud cover from developing keeping the upper levels clear. The trough and low pressure look to remain mostly stationary keeping the northwest flow over the entirety of the state through Friday evening maintaing the clear conditions.
In the mid levels, there is strong agreement between both models that dry air following this morning's front will be maintained throughout the forecast period. Both models agree in an increase in vorticity at the 500-mb levels Thursday morning as that front moves in. In a similar theme to the upper levels, the low is evident across southern Canada and it maintains it positions throughout the forecast period. Both models show a slight increase in moisture ahead of the secondary front, this with some weak forcing supports isolated cloud development in the mid-levels. Clouds are expected to exit the region as the front pushes through leaving Friday sunny and warmer.
In the lower-levels, strong cold air advection is apparent following the passing of the weak cold front early Thursday morning. Dry air will remain locked in at the surface, so despite moisture and forcing mentioned in the mid-levels, precipitation chances look very low. Things remain dry, with a clear sky on Friday.
No comments:
Post a Comment