Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 60

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 41

Thursday: Partly Sunny. High: 61

Thursday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 41 

Friday: Clear. High: 61

 

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Discussion:

Dry conditions move in as high pressure builds into the area bringing Temperatures to near seasonal averages. There will be an increase in cloud cover Thursday and Thursday night but nothing in the way of precipitation making for a very fall-like end of the week.

 

-Russell

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Forecasters: Russell, Shaw, Travis

Date Issued: 10/26/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

Things begin to dry out as the low pressure that brought widespread rainfall begins to pull to the northeast taking the cloud cover with it. Overall, temperatures should remain seasonal for the remainder of the week as a surface high makes its way into the Midwest. With the high placement over the great lakes, winds will remain mostly out of the south and east until Friday afternoon when they will turn from a more easterly direction. The GFS and NAM had good agreement in how the remainder of the week will play out so they have both been considered in this forecast.

In the upper levels, the low pressure continues to move northeast and weaken as it gets absorbed into the polar jet. Meanwhile, sharp trough is moving onshore and is expected to extend south making it to the desert southwest. As it continues east, the trough continues to narrow eventually becoming cut off over the southern plains by Friday morning. We enter a period of zonal flow around the same time which allows the low to slowly meander to the east only making it to  Texas by the end of the forecast period. Weak circulation is apparent on both models associated with the low off to our west however the more organized area remains out of our region. 

In the mid levels, a more intense area of CAA is over the region and expected to be out of the region by this evening. We do see a brief period of WAA Thursday afternoon but nothing especially impactful. The low pressure mentioned in the upper levels was much more apparent across the southern plains, however due to its distance from the area any notable moisture is expected to stay to our west. At 850 mb an area of high pressure not seen in higher levels begins to develop across the central plains and slowly pushes it way east.

The low-level high pressure continues to develop into the region with it being directly overhead Thursday morning. As it continues to slide east, it will gradually slow down before stalling over the great lakes where it will continue to intensify. This causes winds to switch from a more southeasterly direction through Thursday afternoon. Wind will then switch from due east Friday afternoon, this is due to the deepening low pressure that is gradually making its way east.

- Russell