Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 54
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 80
Thursday Night: Few clouds. Low: 46
Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 62
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Discussion:
Mad about the 80 degree temperatures in October? Thankfully we see a change as we round out our week. A low pressure system exits mid-Missouri on Thursday creating some cloudy skies. Then moving into Friday, Columbia sees a major temperature drop down into the low 60s as cold air surges into our region from the north. While you might need a jacket, don’t worry about an umbrella, the temperature drop isn’t expected to come with any rain.Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith
Date Issued: 10/05/2022 5:00 PM CDT
An upper-level low pressure system moves eastward out of the CWA causing scattered clouds Thursday. At this time there is also a wind shift at the surface due to a high-pressure system that will drastically decrease our temperatures. The NAM was used to create this forecast due to its more accurate representation of pressure systems and better handling of moisture in the southwest.
In the upper levels a low-pressure system starting over Iowa moves eastward until it is swept up into the dominating trough residing over Canada. This will be happening Wednesday afternoon and lasting until Friday morning. 500mb maps show a ball of vorticity coupled with the low-pressure system exiting the region with the vort max tracking across northeastern MO. A shortwave trough will follow in its wake.
700mb map of heights and relative humidity show moisture moving in and out of the area over the next 3 days following the exiting trough. 850mb map of heights and RH show moisture moving in and out of the region following the LPS.
The surface map shows a high-pressure system becoming the predominant feature when it starts to move through mid-Missouri Thursday evening. With this HPS comes a shift in our westerly winds bringing them more from the north which will account for our lower temperatures over the weekend.
Soundings show the likeliness of mid-level clouds during the day on Thursday and the chance for some mid-level clouds Thursday night into Friday morning. But otherwise, a dry atmosphere.
Temperature highs will range in the 80’s before dropping into the 60’s on Friday whereas lows will go from the 50’s going down to the upper 30’s Friday evening.
-Cochran, Jones, Smith
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