Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 34
Thursday: Sunny. High: 70
Thursday Night: Clear. Low:44
Friday: Sunny. High: 80
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 55
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!
====================================================================
Discussion: Moving into the latter part of the week, a low pressure system leaves the area allowing a return to the warmer weather. Thursday will jump into the 70’s and up to 80 on Friday. Wednesday and Friday evening will bring some cloud coverage, but the days will be sunny. Homecoming weekend will be a great opportunity to enjoy the nice weather!
=================================================================
Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith
Date Issued: 10/19/2022 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Warmer temperatures are on the way as a ridge pushes the jet stream off to the north into Canada by Friday afternoon. This allows for a southerly wind shift bringing warmer temperatures to the region. Moving through the week there is very little moisture bringing no precipitation, but GFS soundings suggest the area will have some cloud coverage Wednesday evening as well as Friday evening. A combination of the GFS and NAM was used for this forecast due to their overall cohesiveness.
In the upper level a ridge moves through the region Thursday night and is gone by 21Z Friday afternoon. As the ridge pushes eastward, it carries the northern component of the decoupled jet stream out of the region into Canada Friday morning around 15Z. The slower moving southerly component passes through the southern states and begins to enter the region as the forecasting period comes to a close. Trace amounts of vorticity can be seen at the 500mb level late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
At the mid-level there is some WAA in the area starting Wednesday afternoon at 18Z, lasting into the beginning of the weekend. Although we are expecting rising air, the lack of moisture in the 700mb map will lead to mostly clear skies. The advection will bring temperatures into the 70’s on Thursday and up to 80 on Friday. The GFS soundings show mid-level clouds forming on Thursday 3Z and will burn off by 12Z. Clouds can be seen again Friday 3Z lasting into Saturday morning.
The surface levels show a southerly wind shift as the dominate low pressure system over Canada moves further off to the north on Friday 00Z. These surface winds pair with the aforementioned WAA resulting in the rising temperatures on Thursday and Friday. GFS soundings show that Friday evening will be a little breezy as winds reach 15 mph. Future shifts will want to pay attention to the strengthening low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and more moisture entering the area due to the low-level jet.
In the upper level a ridge moves through the region Thursday night and is gone by 21Z Friday afternoon. As the ridge pushes eastward, it carries the northern component of the decoupled jet stream out of the region into Canada Friday morning around 15Z. The slower moving southerly component passes through the southern states and begins to enter the region as the forecasting period comes to a close. Trace amounts of vorticity can be seen at the 500mb level late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
At the mid-level there is some WAA in the area starting Wednesday afternoon at 18Z, lasting into the beginning of the weekend. Although we are expecting rising air, the lack of moisture in the 700mb map will lead to mostly clear skies. The advection will bring temperatures into the 70’s on Thursday and up to 80 on Friday. The GFS soundings show mid-level clouds forming on Thursday 3Z and will burn off by 12Z. Clouds can be seen again Friday 3Z lasting into Saturday morning.
The surface levels show a southerly wind shift as the dominate low pressure system over Canada moves further off to the north on Friday 00Z. These surface winds pair with the aforementioned WAA resulting in the rising temperatures on Thursday and Friday. GFS soundings show that Friday evening will be a little breezy as winds reach 15 mph. Future shifts will want to pay attention to the strengthening low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and more moisture entering the area due to the low-level jet.
No comments:
Post a Comment