Tuesday, October 18, 2022

 

       

 

 



Tuesday Night:
Clear. Low: 23
 

 


Wednesday:
Sunny. High: 51

 


Wednesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 34
 
 
 

Thursday:
Mostly sunny. High: 68
 
 
 

Thursday Night:
Mostly clear. Low: 44

 
 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!


====================================================================

Discussion: You'll need the jacket for one more day! Wednesday has potentially record low temperatures dipping into the lower 20s. Sunshine will prevail both Wednesday and Thursday. As winds start to shift out of the southwest on Thursday, temperatures will creep back to near average in the upper-60s.

-Simmons
 =================================================================

Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, Macko

Date Issued: 10/18/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Both the GFS20 and NAM12 were used for this forecast due to their agreeance on the placement of the upper-level low pressure system off to our east as well as the upper-level trough placement over our area. Additionally, both models were resolving similar amounts of moisture in the mid- and upper-levels. For this forecast period, a shortwave will project southward into our area Wednesday night into Thursday along the exiting trough which will signal a change in our weather. 

Analysis of the 250-mb jetstream shows that Mid-Missouri falls under jet influence with a strong upper-level low centered over the Great Lakes Region. This is providing us with north/northwesterly flow aloft and, in part, helping drive colder than average temperatures across the region. The deep trough off the eastern CONUS will start to move eastward starting Wednesday morning. This will make way for a ridge moving in from the southwest helping drive warmer temperatures later this week.

Currently, at the mid levels, strong vorticity can be seen over central Missouri as  the strong low slides away. This vorticity appears to move away starting at around 0600Z Thursday. A shortwave will dip down into our area from the northwest Wednesday Night into Thursday bringing with it moderate levels of vorticity. The shortwave seems to be meager as it won't have a significant impact on our weather due to lack of available moisture.

The NAM showed slightly more moisture than the GFS did as the shortwave moves through Thursday around 0600Z and exits around 1500Z Thursday. Dewpoints at 850 mb were below zero degrees Celsius indicating prretty dry conditions toward the planetary boundary layer. Nonetheless, soundings showed some saturation at the 300 and 500 mb layers hinting at some clouds Wednesday night and into Thursday. At the surface, winds will start to shift out of the southwest Thursday allowing for warmer temperaturs to build back in later this week.

-Simmons

No comments:

Post a Comment