Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

  

Tuesday Night: Rain, then clearing overnight. Low: 38
 
 

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 63

 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41

Thursday: Partly Sunny. High: 61

 

 

 Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41

 

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Discussion:

Rain will continue to fall throughout the rest of the day on Tuesday. Overnight cloud cover will diminish. High pressure will then build into the area bringing fair temperatures along with some clouds for the remainder of the week. 

- Meier

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Forecasters: Simmons, Meier, Macko

Date Issued: 10/25/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

While the models were mostly in agreeance, we used the GFS20 because of how it handled the precipitation amounts. However, both models were used in making this forecast. Later in the week, a low-pressure system will develop that future forecasting groups will have to monitor. The biggest problem right now is the cut-off low-pressure system just south of our location.

Currently in the upper-levels of the atmosphere, a low-pressure system is situated in the Pacific Northwest. More locally, a cut-off low is just south of Columbia, MO. Associated with this low was the recent cold front that passed through mid-Missouri, bringing much needed rainfall to the region. This low will slide off to the east as the night progresses and by 06Z Wednesday it will have completely left our area. The jet-stream will stay directly over us as the week moves on. This jet-stream will bring us zonal flow throughout the week. Upper level divergence will stay out of our area as calm weather is expected for the rest of the week. By late Thursday evening, the low-pressure system originating from the Pacific NW will have traversed southeast into Newtexlahoma--interrupting our calm upper-level flow.

In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, vorticity, moisture, and Omega exit along with the cut-off low and are not expected to make a reappearance for the rest of the period. Mid-level westerly flow will dominate through Friday bringing calm weather. Towards the very end of the forecast period, the low-pressure system over Newtexlahoma changes the air movement to a southerly flow.

In the lower levels of the atmosphere, all mositure evacuates our region as the low-pressure system slides out of our area. The low level jet (LLJ) will stay over our area until 21Z Wednesday. Immediately after the LLJ leaves our area, a ridge will build in and high pressure will dominate. The LLJ will stay to our west for the entirety of the forecast. Cold air advection will be seen overnight Tuesday, resulting in colder temperatures. However, warm air advection is expected to happen Thursday afternoon. This will then cause temperatures to increase later on in the week and into the weekend.

-Meier