Monday: Clear and Breezy. High: 48
Monday Night: Clear. Low: 25
Tuesday: Clear. High: 46
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low:24
Wednesday: Clear. High: 50
Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!
====================================================================
Discussion: This week is the perfect time to break out that beanie from your closet as we prepare for some unusually chilly weather this week! Expect clear skies and plenty of sun, but don't count on the heat because it's taking a few days off.
=================================================================
Forecasters: Schneringer, Travis, Samson
Date Issued: 10/17/2022 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Unseasonably cold temperatures for Columbia during this third week of October. A positively tilted trough sits to the Northeast of Missouri (MO) centered over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS (Continental United States) generating a northerly wind bringing temperatures down.
For this forecast a mix of GFS20 and NAM12 models were used due to general agreement over projections. At the 250 mb level, both models predicted divergence over MO for Monday leading into Tuesday; however, not a large amount of divergence was predicted, so affect on current and future weather will be minimal.
Moving on to the 500 mb level, both the GFS20 and NAM12 showed positive vorticity occuring Tuesday night into Wednesday morning over central MO, giving potential for cloud formation and precipitation. However, the chance for precipitation seems unlikely as at the 700 mb level, neither the GFS20 or NAM12 model show high relative humidity during this time frame. Projections at the 850 mb level support this conclusion as well. Drawing from these models, precipitation seems unlikely during this period of high vorticity.
To round out this discussion at the 700 and 850 mb level there is cold air advection occurring from Monday onto Tuesday; however, that trend changes on Wednesday as warm air advection begins causing air temperature to rise.
-Samson
No comments:
Post a Comment