Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday: Rain. High: 46
Tuesday Night: Rain. Low: 41
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 63
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41
Thursday: Partly Sunny. High: 61
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Discussion:
Tuesday will bring mid-Missouri plenty of much-needed rain, lasting throughout the day until around 12:00 AM Wednesday. The rest of the week will be cool and dry, with high temperatures in the low 60s. Wednesday will be cloud-free, with clouds moving in that night and remaining through Thursday morning, before eventually diminishing Thursday afternoon.Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Baker
Date Issued: 10/25/2022 9:00 AM CDT
Our forecast primarily used the GFS due to how it handled our current rainfall accumulation. The NAM underestimated our current rain accumulation by around .5" while the GFS predicted our current rainfall amounts well. Due to the problem of the day being rainfall accumulation and the timing of rain leaving mid-Missouri, we decided to use the GFS. For temperatures, the two models were in concurrence, and so we considered their temperature outputs along with the NBM to determine our temperatures.
Tuesday will see rain throughout the day as we remain deeply saturated until 18z, where a dry layer will develop around 600 mb, which will reduce the intensity of rainfall until the layer is saturated again through rainfall evaporation. Rain will continue through 03z-06z Wednesday, when the upper-level trough that is driving our current weather pattern will move off to our east as the 300 mb low pressure center tracks off into IL, returning us to zonal flow in the upper levels.
Wednesday, surface-based northerly winds will mix with and help to dry out the 850 and 700 mb levels. This will result in cool temperatures and a clear sky. Wednesday night will see upper-level clouds begin to enter the area, as some 500mb vorticity associated with high RH at the same level will move in to our area around 03z Thursday. As this 500 mb moisture and lift enters the area, however, a high pressure system at 850 mb will begin to build in, first covering MO and eventually dominating the Eastern CONUS by Thursday afternoon. This high pressure system will help to keep the 850 mb level and the surface unsaturated and dominated by sinking air, and only high-level clouds will exist.
Thursday will see a layer of clouds from 600 to 300 mb in the morning before clouds eventually diminish as the day progresses and the RH decreases at all levels. These layers of the atmosphere will both be saturated and will have some 500mb vorticity, supporting cloud formation. Despite a northerly wind at the surface, the high temperature should be similar to Wednesday due to the morning cloud cover.
-Clark
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