Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High: 77
Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 50
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 82
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 56
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Discussion:
It looks like the fall season is here to stay! Today will bring sunshine with a few clouds rolling in this afternoon, expect temperatures to reach the upper 70s. Tonight, though, lack of cloud cover will allow temperatures to cool down into the low 50s. A high pressure system to our south will push in warmer temperatures on Wednesday, we should see temperatures jump into the low 80s. Look for clouds to increase as a cold front is heading our way. Cloud cover will insulate our area Wednesday night keeping our overnight lows in the mid 50s. =================================================================
Forecasters: Clark, Baker, Ritsema
Date Issued: 10/04/2022 9:30 AM CDT
Both the NAM and the GFS 12z model runs were used; however, due to temperature observations, upper level forcing, and timing, this forecast leaned more toward the GFS. Looking into the end of the forecasting period, a cold front will push through the CWA, but timing of cold air advection seems to lag behind the front by a significant amount of time.
Currently, we are situated under an upper level ridge as evident on the 250mb map. High pressure has begun to decay as a low pressure system situated over South Dakota moves into the Midwest. A wind shift from the northeast to the southeast occurs at 18z as the 850mb high pressure system tracks northeast throughout the day today.
Tomorrow morning around 15z, moisture will begin to flow into the CWA ahead of the frontal system. Evident on the 850mb map the low level jet over the central plains will advect warm, moist air into the CWA. A sounding was further analyzed to pinpoint arrival and height of cloud cover. Low dew point depressions at the 700mb and 500mb heights show that clouds begin to form between 8z and 11z. Those clouds persist throughout Wednesday and decay slightly Thursday.
Late Wednesday night at 3z and early Thursday morning the cold front pushes through the CWA which can be seen with wind shifts from the west to northwest and moisture advection on the 850mb map. Although the front passes through in the morning, temperature advection runs behind due to lack of forcing from the polar jet. Though, Thursday afternoon a polar jet streak on the 250mb map produces enough forcing to bring in colder temperatures. This is evident using the timing of solenoids indicating the cold air moving into mid-Missouri will arrive late Thursday evening.
According to soundings, the frontal passage appears to be dry with PWat values not even reaching an inch. This leads to the belief that little to no rain will fall in the CWA along this front. What rain will be able to make it to the ground will equate to .01 inches north of I-70.
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