Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Monday: Cloudy. Rain beginning after noon. High: 70

 

Monday Night: Cloudy. Rainy. Low: 55
 
 

Tuesday: Cloudy. Rain, then scattered showers. High: 49

 

 

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 44

Wednesday: Sunny. High:57

 

 

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Discussion:

An umbrella wouldn't be a bad idea this afternoon as mid-Missouri braces for some welcome rain. Showers are expected this afternoon and into tonight, picking back up tomorrow in time for your morning commute. Temperatures are expected to drop behind this cold front, but the sun will be back out later this week.

- Schneringer

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Forecasters: Samson, Schneringer, Travis

Date Issued: 10/24/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

A surface low is currently placed near the US-Canada border south of Manitoba, with its attendant cold front draped from Minnesota southwest through Iowa and central Kansas. This feature will serve to bring precipitation to the forecast region today as it moves through Missouri. Beyond this frontal passage, a positively tilted low is situated to our southwest, with 12Z surface maps locating it over the Texas panhandle. The precipitation associated with the front to our west and the development of the low to the southwest are the primary features focused on in this forecast. The 06Z run of the GFS and NAM were both used for this forecast, as well as the 11Z and 48hr 06Z runs of the HRRR.

An amplified trough-ridge pattern is situated over the Midwest and Great Plains. Upper level divergence embedded within a southerly jet will pass over the region this afternoon and evening, as the back half of the ridge processes through the forecast area. Frontal passage is timed differently between the NAM and GFS, with the GFS placing it a couple hours ahead of the NAM this evening. Soundings indicate deep moisture present after ~18Z, with PWAT values above 1.6in. Precipitation will initiate around or after this time, increasing in intensity throughout the afternoon. Modeled precipitation totals show the first band of rain tapering off after midnight tonight.

The trough to the southwest develops into a closed low throughout today, and by 12Z tomorrow the GFS places it over northeast Oklahoma. PWAT values still above 1.25 inches couple with upper level divergence, southerly flow, and strong southerly flow will bring another round of rain from the southwest through the region Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will continue throughout the day and into the afternoon as the low moves eastward through the region. All told, precipitation totals for the region could exceed 2.5 inches

High pressure builds in behind the passing of the low, with a zonal flow regime established aloft by noon on Wednesday.

-Schneringer