Friday, October 21, 2022

 

  Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

 

 

Friday Night: Sparse clouds. Low: 59


  
 
Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 83
 
 
 

  Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 64

 
 
 Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High: 82


 
Sunday Night: Slight chance of isolated shower. Low: 65


 
 

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Discussion:

Breeze conditions won't be going away this weekend, make sure to bring heavy weights to keep the tents down! Temperatures will be staying well above-average throughout the weekend, but by the start of next week temperatures will be reeling back to average.

- Labit
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Forecasters: Labit, Easter, Allen, Travis

Date Issued: 10/21/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:
 
The GFS was the primary model as opposed to the NAM. Even though both models had agreement in a lot of cases, the NAM tends to have more sudden bursts of moisture whereas the GFS has a more gradual advection of moisture into the region. We went this route to focus primarily on the rain chances for early next week.
 
Early morning Sunday brings in zonal flow from the west to east. A shortwave trough extending from Southern Canada into New Mexico along with an amplified ridge stretching from Louisiana up into Canada will be influencing the trajectory of the jet stream. This will encourage a strengthening jet streak over the far western Texas-Mexico border inducing positive vorticity advection over the Midwest.

Saturday evening dry air is set in place from 700mb down to the surface because of the southwesterly winds originating from the drought-stricken SW CONUS. This is where a discrepancy between the GFS and the NAM lies with the moisture mentioned previously. The GFS has very little moisture moving into the area, though enough moisture is present in the upper levels to provide cloud development. 

By Sunday night into early Monday morning a longwave trough digs into the western CONUS and deepens, increasing winds from the south resulting in more moisture advection. Cloud development will increase during this time. If moisture moves in during the overnight hours, drizzle is not out of the realm of possibility.

-Labit

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