Current Conditions at Sanborn Field        

Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 61

 Friday Night: Clear. Patchy Frost. Low: 36

 

  Saturday: Sunny. High: 64

 

  Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 43

 

  Sunday: Mostly Sunny: High: 73

 

 

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Discussion:   

Temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 50s today after the passage of a cold front last night. An area of high pressure will move near our region tonight, resulting in a clear sky overnight and allowing temperatures to drop into the mid 30s. Some areas of frost are possible tonight, especially in rural areas. Clear conditions will persist through the weekend, as temperatures will rebound to near average by Sunday (Avg. High 72).

-Peine

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Forecasters: Peine, McCormack, Aldrich

Date Issued: 10/07/2022 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

A mixture of both the 06Z NAM and 06Z GFS were utilized for this forecast. There was a large temperature spread between the NAM and the GFS for both highs and lows. With no identifiable reason for model discrepancy, a blend between the two models was used for forecasting high and low temperatures, as well as sky conditions for our forecast period.

At 250mb and 500mb, we are tracking two shortwaves, one located over the Northeastern CONUS, and the other located over the Upper Midwest. Both of these shortwaves are associated with a trough positioned over the Eastern half of the CONUS. At 700mb and 850mb, there are currently pockets of moisture located over our region, which is the reason for the patchy clouds this morning. The shortwave located to our North will push southward today, pushing out the little amounts of moisture we currently have at 700mb and 850mb. This will allow a slow moving area of high pressure, that is currently located over North Dakota, to sink southeast into our region Friday Night into Saturday, and will lead to clear conditions for the remainder of the weekend.

The slow moving area of high pressure will be positioned over northwest Missouri tonight, which will lead to calm northerly winds at the surface. With the center of high pressure within close proximity to our region tonight, subsidence will be maximized, resulting in efficient radiational cooling, allowing our temperatures to drop in to the mid 30s. Urban areas will be warmer while rural and low lying areas may approach the freezing mark tonight, due to the little amount of mixing that will occur overnight with calm winds in place at the surface. Therefore, a Frost Advisory has been put in effect from 06Z to 14Z Saturday for Columbia and surrounding areas.

 

The area of high pressure will slowly move southeast over our region Saturday resulting in calm winds and below average high temperatures once again. By Sunday, the slow moving area of high pressure will be located over Tennessee, placing our region in a southerly flow at the surface, allowing temperatures to rebound to near average (Avg. High 72).

- Peine, McCormack, Aldrich