Current Conditions at Sanborn Field  

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 41

 

 

 

Thursday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 58
 

  

 

Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 41
 

 

 

Friday: Clearing up into the Afternoon. High: 61

Friday Night: Clear. High: 43

 

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Discussion:

After a rainy couple of days a high pressure system has settled into the area and will give us some nice fall days. High temperatures will range from the mid 50’s to low 60’s and low temperatures will be in the 40’s. There will be lots of clouds on Thursday but fewer clouds on Friday, none of which will bear any precipitation.

 

-Smith

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Forecasters: Cochran, Jones, Smith

Date Issued: 10/26/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

There were few discernable differences between the GFS and NAM so a combination has been used for this forecast.


There is a strong low pressure system that we can see at all levels of the atmosphere located over the TX/OK panhandle that will eventually bring changes over this weekend. For now, this LPS split the jet stream with the northerly component retreating into Canada and the southerly component south of MO will dissipate in the next 72 hours. Any vorticity we see will show up on Saturday as the LPS moves to our southwest and then curls up into mid MO on Sat. Soundings show mild saturation in the upper levels on Thursday so a fair amount of clouds is expected. Clouds will start to dissipate going into Friday day and evening.


On both the 700 and 850 RH maps, moisture stays out of the region until the LPS brings in some moisture on Sat. afternoon. With the exiting trough goes the recent cold air advection and in the coming days there will be sporadic warm air advection due to our south easterly winds until the LPS comes in on Sat. and starts to affect things. Soundings show mild saturation in the mid levels on Thursday so a fair amount of clouds is expected. Clouds will start to dissipate going into Friday day and evening.


Our surface maps show the primary reason for our nice fall weather and that is the dominating high pressure system over the Great Lakes. Our high temperatures will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s whereas our lows will be in the 40’s. This system will dominate the weather pattern as it moves eastward and is replaced by the aforementioned LPS on Sat. Our winds will remain from the SE-E until the LPS comes in and shifts our winds to more NE flow. Looking at our dew points we can see that there is very little moisture in the area until the LPS shows up Sat. afternoon.


-Cochran, Jones, Smith