Current Conditions at Sanborn Field        

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 44

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 59

  

   Friday Night: Clear. Low: 38

 

 

   Saturday: Clear. High:64

 

  Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 48

 

 

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Discussion:   

Cooler temperatures are here to stay, as we continue into the upper 50s through the weekend. As cold air moves across mid-Missouri, expect increased moisture and clouds tonight. However, these clouds won't last long, as high pressure will bring clear skies for the rest of the weekend.

Rangel

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Forecasters: Chirpich, Rangel, VanUnnik

Date Issued: 10/06/2022 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

The 18Z run of the GFS was utilized for this forecast. The GFS and NAM had very different predicted highs and lows, and NAM seemed to reach less of a consensus than GFS between model runs. Along with this, NBM was consulted for temperature forecasting, which happened to run much closer to the GFS predicted temperatures than the NAM's.

At 250 mb, eastern CONUS exhibits zonal air flow, with winds from the west. A low pressure system to the northeast results in a wind shift to a northwesterly component. This, combined with the polar jet shifting southerly, will bring cooler air from the north. The polar jet will couple with the subtropical jet over Kentucky and Tennessee on Friday evening, however, this will not impact temperatures in mid-Missouri. 

A low pressure system seen over Illinois at 500mb is associated with vorticity over the area as well. On Friday, these levels see a wind shift over central Missouri from a westerly flow to northwesterly flow, due to the low pressure system off to the east.

The relative humidity map at 700mb shows more moisture entering central Missouri at 00Z on Friday. When soundings were consulted for moisture content, we can confirm that the presence of moisture at 700mb is likely clouds, and not any precipitation is expected. The moisture advects out of the area Friday afternoon, leaving a clear sky behind.

A northerly wind shift at 850mb over mid-Missouri will result in cooler temperatures beginning Thursday evening, which will remain throughout the weekend. Along with this, high pressure will begin to affect Missouri on Friday, bringing a lack of moisture, and therefore clear skies for the remainder of the forecast period.

Solenoids over the midwest, including Mizzouri, were evident on the surface map, and coincided with a northerly wind, indicating CAA overnight on Thursday. 

- Rangel