Current Conditions at Sanborn Field 

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 40

 

 

Saturday:  Increasing clouds throughout the day. High: 65
 

 

Saturday Night: Rainy. Low: 50
 

 

Sunday: Rain in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High: 61
 

Sunday Night: Cloudy. Low: 46

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons!

====================================================================

Discussion:

Last clear day before the clouds begin to roll back into the sky. Rain chances starting around late Saturday night into Sunday morning, then reverting back to a cloudy sky Sunday night. Clearing up just before Halloween! Trick-or-Treat!

-Labit

 =================================================================

Forecasters: Allen, Labit, Travis

Date Issued: 10/28/2022 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

 

This forecast used both the GFS and NAM but focused more on the GFS as it seemed to more accurately predict the past temperatures and the location of the low-pressure system currently over the Texas-Oklahoma-Arkansas region. Weather you should watch for this weekend is the possible showers coming Saturday night through Sunday morning.

 

Friday at 250mb, we see the jet stream over the Lower Mississippi River Valley at 21z and we'll see some vorticity moving into southwest MO at about Saturday 09z. Since there won't be any saturation in the upper or lower atmosphere over MO Friday night we will be seeing a clear sky until about Saturday 15z. 

Saturday 15z we start to see an increase of lower and upper level clouds throughout the day due to the closed low moving into southwest MO, bringing wind divergence at 250mb throughout the day until about Sunday 15z. We also have vorticity at 500mb from Saturday 18z to Sunday 12z. Model soundings suggest deep layer saturation moves into Columbia starting at about 02z. This indicates there are chances of showers Saturday night.      

Sunday shows chances of on and off showers throughout the morning and tapering off at about 18z. While the upper and lower levels indicate that saturation stays throughout Sunday and Sunday night, there is no vorticity at 500mb over Columbia after about 20z. Sunday morning at about 12z we will see northeasterly surface winds due to the low-pressure system moving away from Columbia and thus causing Sunday's high temperature to be a few degrees lower than the previous day.   

-Allen