Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Partly cloudy, clearing in the evening. High: 58

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 32

Saturday: Scattered clouds. High: 50

Saturday Night: Few clouds. Low: 30

 

 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 48

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

After a soggy work week the Columbia area can look forward to a calm, but cool weekend forecast. The previous system has pushed to the east (finally) and behind it a ridge bringing fair weather will give the region a tranquil Saturday and Sunday weather pattern. Northerly winds will keep temperatures on the cool side for late March, but with the ridge influencing the Midwest no precipitation is expected as the University of Missouri heads into Spring Break.

-Bongard

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/25/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The 06Z run of NAM40 was utilized for this forecast, along with NAM forecast soundings. Both the NAM40 and GFS20 were running low for temperatures this morning; Sanborn Field had an observed low of 38 degrees Fahrenheit, while GFS had a low of 32F, and NAM had a low of 34F. Due to the inaccuracy of both model outputs, the NBM was consulted for temperature forecasting as well. As a result of model inaccuracy the problem of this forecast period was gauging high and low temperatures through the weekend.

As a meridional flow takes over the CONUS leading into this weekend, a slow-moving ridge makes it way to the Midwest. Due to being stuck in the downstream of said ridge for the entirety of the forecast period, Missouri will experience northwesterly flow. This will lead to cooler, more seasonal temperatures for central Missouri. The jet stream remains positioned downstream on the eastern side of the ridge, strengthening upper-level flow over the area.

A low pressure system originating over Minnesota makes its way southeast, passing to the east of Missouri at 500mb on Friday night. Vorticity associated with the low pressure system will pass to the east of the Mississippi River, and Missouri's weather remains influenced by the ridge over the western CONUS. 

A dry air intrusion associated with the aforementioned low pressure system rids Missouri of moisture on Friday, leading to clear skies in the evening and overnight. Moisture will return to mid-Missouri late Saturday morning at 700mb, but below remains dry according to NAM model soundings, so precipitation is not expected but scattered clouds will be the rule for the remainder of the forecast period. 

-VanUnnik

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Overcast with drizzle, clearing through the night. Low: 36

Friday: Clear sky in the afternoon. High: 58

Friday Night: Moonlit night. Low: 35

Saturday: Sunny. High: 52

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 30

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

With spring having arrived earlier this week, seasonal temperatures are in store for mid-Missouri as we head into the weekend. As the rain finally meanders off to our east tonight, a cold front will travel with it, bringing our winds predominantly out of the north. This will cool off our temperatures even more, bringing us below freezing Saturday night. Luckily, as the rain travels out tonight, our sky will also begin to clear and solar heating will help to stave off much colder temperatures during the day. Given the ever decreasing drizzle from this lingering storm, there is no anticipated precipitation for this forecast period.

- Noblitt

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Forecasters: Noblitt, Splater, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 3/24/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS20 was utilized for this forecast as it had the best handle on current features and temperatures. Additional guidance from the NBM and RAP were used for temperature and precipitation forecasting. 

Soggy conditions will finally come to an end this evening as a lobe of vorticity will move southwest out of the area. Lack of lift and departing moisture will only support light showers before midnight, and cloud cover will exit in the early morning hours tomorrow.

Surface winds will then back out of the west leading up to noon on Friday in response to an incoming shortwave. This will bring seasonable conditions back to Mid-MO briefly, with northerly winds returning late in the day. Precipitation is unlikely, though some clouds will be possible due to lingering moisture.

A persistent northerly flow regime will work to keep the region below average nearly all weekend, with a possible freeze by Sunday morning. Winds will steadily begin to veer out of the south by early Monday, a precursor to more warming conditions early next week.

 

- Splater

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Overcast, rain. Low: 35

Thursday: Overcast, rain. High: 44

Thursday Night: Overcast, drizzle. Low: 36

Friday: Clouds decreasing, sun in the afternoon. High: 58

Friday Night: Clear, windy. Low: 35

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Do not put those umbrellas away just yet! Rainy conditions should stick around for the rest of the evening into the overnight hours. Temperatures will also continue to drop into the middle 30s for low temperatures overnight. If you wake up tomorrow morning and see some snowflakes flying, do not be alarmed, as any snowflakes we see tomorrow will not accumulate as ground temperatures will be way too warm. Thursday will be much like today, with rainy and colder conditions. It is not until Friday that the low pressure system finally moves away, taking the moisture with it. Meaning sunshine returns and temperatures rise into the upper 50s for highs.

- Meyer

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 3/23/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The GFS and the NAM were extremely similar in their surface model outputs. In addition to accurate forecasted temperature for Wednesday afternoon, both models displayed the low pressure system at the surface over the Midwest. We led with the NAM model, but used soundings from the GFS to aid and supplement the forecast. Duration of the current precipitation and the potential for winter weather Thursday morning were of main focus for this forecast.

Wednesday afternoon Missouri sits in the axis of a deep trough displayed at the 250-mb level. This trough extends over Oklahoma, Iowa, and Illinois. The trough is accompanied with a strong jet streak on the right side. Jet streak values reach 120-kts winds coming out of the southwest. The jet streak present to the east of Missouri ultimately weakens the trough and causes it to flatten out over Thursday. A low pressure system remains over the Great Lakes region bringing in winds from the northwest. The lack of divergence at 250mb reveals there will be little surface convergence. After the low pressure system moves east, Missouri sees the greatest impact by a ridge present at 250mb over the western CONUS.

Strong circulation is seen over the Midwest at 500mb. This lift present Wednesday night to Thursday is an important component to the continued rainfall. Circulation moves east Thursday night. More circulations moves from the northwest Thursday night for a brief time. By 09Z Friday, Columbia lacks vorticity giving way to decreased chances of precipitation.

The rain currently present in Columbia is largely due to the increase of moisture displayed at 700mb. The increased values of relative humidity continue to be present throughout the day Thursday into overnight hours. The saturation in the atmosphere promotes the cloudy conditions that will be seen over the next 24 hours. The likelihood of continued drizzle during this time is high.

At 850mb, temperatures can be expected to drop due to a large flux of cold air with northerly winds at 20 kts. As the low pressure system remains over the Great Lakes, winds circulate around the Midwest cyclonically. North-northwesterly winds continue throughout the forecast period. The strongest values over Columbia can be seen Friday night into Saturday when winds reach up to 50 kts.

The low pressure system over the Great Lakes largely influences the weather seen over Columbia. At the surface, weak westerly winds dominate the next two days. Missouri sees a slight influence from cold air advection beginning Friday night; encouraging a drop in surface temperatures. Winds at the surface shift to the northwest at 15kts Friday night into Saturday. During this time, one can expect windy conditions in Columbia.

Soundings for KCOU show saturation present from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday night. The potential for snow is of interest due to the decreasing temperatures as a result of the cold front moving through the area. The temperature at the surface will not reach below freezing; however, Thursday morning the surface temperature drops to 35F. Due to below freezing temperatures in the upper atmosphere, a slight wintry mix or a few flurries can be expected for a brief amount of time. Because the ground temperatures will remain above freezing, there will be no snow accumulation. Rain will become the dominate precipitation type as the temperature increases beginning mid-morning Thursday. Columbia will slowly see sun Friday, due to decreasing clouds and saturation in the atmosphere. Precipitation values over Wednesday and Thursday will be around 0.1 inches.


- Heienickle

 

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday: Overcast and rain. High: 43

Wednesday Night: Rain. Low: 38

Thursday: Rain. High: 44

Thursday Night: Sky clearing overnight. High: 34

Friday: Sunny and warmer. High: 60

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

A chilly and rainy midweek is in the forecast! Due to the passage of a cold front early Wednesday morning, temperatures will fall below the seasonal average. Precipitation will persist for much of Wednesday and Thursday before the moisture supply is depleted. Around 0.3" of rain is expected to fall between the time of issuance and the end of Thursday. To end the week, Friday will consist of warmer temperatures and decreased cloud cover.

- Macko

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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/23/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

The period for this forecast is from 15Z Wednesday to Friday evening. Both the NAM and the GFS were evaluated for this forecast; however, the GFS was chosen due to its more accurate portrayal of a low pressure system in northern Missouri and having a better handle on current temperatures. The main focus of this forecast period will be how long precipitation will persist along with precipitation amounts. Soundings were used to determine the timing of precipitation, as well as precipitation types. The NBM was consulted in forecasting temperatures and precipitation totals.

A deep, positively tilted trough has its axis stretching from western Texas to northeastern Illinois. The low associated with this is currently in the Central Plains. This extensive trough is causing an exaggerated meridional pattern. A jet streak is just to the south of Missouri on the eastern side of the trough. As the trough, low pressure system, and jet streak continue to push east, Missouri sees a drastic change in wind direction. Upper-level winds start out southwest but shift to the northwest in the early hours of Thursday morning. Mid-Missouri then falls under the influence of another upper-level jet streak as the day progresses on Friday. Divergence is minimal throughout the forecast period until late in the day on Friday.

There is still a strong presence of meridional flow at the 500-mb level. This flow will, again, becomes zonal throughout the forecast period. An enhanced area of circulation is currently stationed over mid-Missouri along with a mid-level low. This low and vorticity moves east throughout the day but is quickly replaced with another mid-level low with more vorticity overnight Thursday. Areas of circulation continue to come and go in waves throughout the day on Friday.

The trough and low pressure are still evident into the lower levels of the atmosphere, although the low is more to the north, now located in Iowa. Moisture is currently prevalent in Missouri and will remain until late Thursday evening. As the low pressure continues to push east, Missouri falls into a northerly wind flow. These northerly winds will begin to dominate and push any moisture out of Missouri on Friday.

In the lower-levels of the atmosphere, a closed low can be seen over the Middle Mississippi Valley. There is still a strong meridional flow, but Missouri stays out of the influence of any jet streak until Friday. Early Friday morning, a lower-level northerly jet streak behind the associated cold front moves into Missouri from Canada bringing in drier air and helps to push any remaining moisture out. Missouri then stays within this jet streak for the remainder of the forecast period. Despite CAA residing over the area the lack of cloud cover will help to warm the high temperature to the low 60's Friday.

Soundings indicate that rain will persist throughout the day today as there is a deep moisture profile along with a note-worthy amount of negative omega at the surface. Omega becomes less significant overnight into Friday and moisture at 700mb and the surface begins to dry out. There is still moisture at 850mb, indicating that there could be some clouds overnight. Moisture continues to decrease as the sun rises on Friday leading to a clearing sky; however, moisture at the surface and calm wind indicates there could be the possibility for fog early Friday morning. Rain will be the dominate precipitation type but with cooling temperatures there could be the possibility of a snowflake or two Thursday night. Rain is expected to be off and on for the next few days but should come to a complete stop just after midnight on Friday. Rainfall totals for the forecast period will be around 0.33”. Future forecast shifts should continue watching for changes in rainfall totals as well as the potential for fog.

 

-Kobielusz

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday Night: Overcast. Rain, isolated thunderstorms early evening. Low: 42

Wednesday: Cloudy with rain. High: 43

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with intermittent showers. Low: 38

Thursday: Overcast and rainy High: 44

Thursday Night: Sky clearing. Low: 37

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

This week is trying its best to be cold and rainy; what a way to start off spring! Tonight will have showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms starting early in the evening continuing to around midnight. After midnight, the likelihood of thunderstorms diminish, but rain will continue. As the sun begins to rise Wednesday morning, a cold front will sweep through the area causing a quick wind shift to the northwest and temperatures to drop throughout the day. Rain is expected to continue throughout Wednesday and until Thursday morning when the low pressure system causing this rain will begin heading east, taking the moisture with it. Columbia can expect to pickup around .45 inch of rain by midday Thursday. We should be able to see some stars Thursday night as the clouds begin clearing out. 

-Alexander

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr

Date Issued: 3/22/2022 05:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

   
The problem during this forecast period is dreary conditions with an overcast sky and persistent rain for the next few days. There is also a chance for some isolated thunderstorm activity early in the forecast period. The 12Z model run of the GFS was used in the making of this forecast. It outperformed the NAM and other models in the forecasting of surface temperatures while there was not a significant difference in the placement of any of the current atmospheric features. Finally, the NBM and GEFS plumes were used to predict rainfall totals for the period.

In in the upper atmosphere, a deep trough sits to the west of Missouri over the Great Plains, extending into northern Mexico. A jet streak at 250mb wraps around the base of the trough with the strongest jet max centered over central Kansas and western Missouri. As the trough moves east, Mid-Missouri sits in the right entrance region of the jet streak indicating divergence aloft. Overnight on Wednesday, the trough becomes positively tilted over Missouri and a strong jet streak develops to the southeast, placing Missouri in the left exit region of the trough for most of Wednesday.


At 500mb strong circulation wraps around the low pressure system and move east towards Missouri. The strongest vorticity passes over Columbia late on Tuesday and early Wednesday, which will help in the development of rain and the potential for thunderstorms during this time. Increased vorticity continues over Mid-Missouri through the end of the forecast period.


Similarly, decreasing values of omega at 700mb are present during the forecast period with the lowest values around 00Z and 03Z Wednesday. Values of relative humidity at 700mb stay fairly high throughout the forecast period. There is an increase during the day on Wednesday as moisture wraps around the low pressure system. The presence of deep moisture and significant lift will help in the development of any thunderstorm activity early Tuesday evening and help with the persistent rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Soundings during this time are also evident of saturation going down to the surface and very low values of omega.


At 850-mb, high values of relative humidity are forecasted starting late on Tuesday as moisture is wrapped around the low pressure system. Winds have been out of the south for the past few days, which helps the low level jet to advect moisture into the region. During the forecast period the low pressure center moves closer to the CWA and moisture is then wrapped around the cyclone and pools over Missouri. The wind shifts to a northerly direction early morning Wednesday after the passage of a cold front and then becomes more westerly as the system moves off to the east.


As mentioned earlier, one of the problems during this forecast is the potential for convection early on Tuesday night. It is evident that there will be significant forcing and moisture Tuesday evening around 03Z Wednesday. So, this is likely when precipitation will begin for Mid-Missouri and, during this time, there is also the possibility for isolated thunderstorms. GFS soundings show that the highest amount of MU CAPE is around 174 J/KG, indicating that the potential for severe thunderstorms is unlikely, but a few rumbles of thunder are possible during this time.


Temperatures are expected to be much cooler for the end of the forecast period because of rainy and overcast conditions during the day and the passage of the cold front around 12Z Wednesday. Rain is expected to start Tuesday evening with a total accumulation of less than a quarter of an inch. During the day on Wednesday accumulations are expected to be less than .15 of an inch, less than a tenth of an inch Wednesday night, and trace amounts on Thursday. Total rain accumulations are expected to be around half an inch. Future forecasters should monitor cooler temperatures and wet conditions.


-Duff

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Rain. Low:52

 

Tuesday: Cloudy with scattered showers. High: 65

 

Tuesday Night: Rain with chance of thunderstorms early evening. Low: 42

 

Wednesday: Cloudy with rain. High: 46

 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with intermittent showers. Low: 38

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

Get your umbrellas ready for wet and cool weather for the next few days! A low pressure system from the Southwest United States will be the cause of our gloomy weather this week. A majority of the severe weather associated with this system will remain to our south in Texas and Louisiana; however, there is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night! Temperatures will continue to fall with the passage of a cold front early Wednesday morning. Precipitation values are expected to be about 0.5" to 0.75" Wednesday night.

-McMullen

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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap, Cochran

Date Issued: 3/21/2022 05:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The model chosen for this forecast was the NAM, mainly due to its sufficient handling of an incoming low-pressure system and accuracy in relation to observed surface temperatures. A low-pressure system is moving from the Four Corners region into the Central Plains. Persistent rain will occur ahead of the system as it moves closer to the CWA. Since there is also a small chance of thunderstorms, RAP and HRRR were also utilized.

Wind speed and divergence plots at 250 mb show a significant amount of upper-level divergence near the entrance region of a jet streak as an highly amplified trough slowly moves its way across the western CONUS. This divergence suggests that the atmosphere will become unstable. The CWA sits underneath the jet stream until Wednesday morning, resulting in cooler conditions in store for that day. The 500 mb vorticity map showed a great amount of circulation surrounding the trough around 00Z Wednesday, further indicating meridional flow in the central CONUS.

According the the 700 mb relative humidity map, there will be significant moisture present at the mid-levels which stays to the north and south of the CWA on Tuesday. The model soundings indicate saturation at the surface, however since the remainder of the atmosphere remains dry, precipitation on Tuesday may be light. Moisture will then be reintroduced on Wednesday as the soundings become more consistently saturated in the lower to mid levels. Decreasing omega values indicate significant lift ahead of the trough on Monday night followed by an equally significant downdraft overnight. This could be evidence of the atmosphere becoming increasingly unstable and then later producing precipitation due to the downdraft.

850 mb winds maintain a southerly component until late Wednesday afternoon, adopting a northerly direction as the low-pressure system passes over the CWA. In comparison, winds at the surface are primarily southeasterly on Tuesday with solenoids and modest wind speeds indicating WAA. This should help maintain warm temperatures until Wednesday afternoon as winds will shift to a WNW track, introducing cooler temperatures into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley.

Model soundings indicate significant moisture throughout the atmosphere Monday night and throughout the day on Wednesday. At 03Z Tuesday, omega values significantly lower than -10 are located throughout the mid to upper atmosphere. Despite this, a minuscule MU CAPE value of 29 J/kg would not be enough to encourage significant convection. The possibility of thunderstorms remains slight through the forecast period, although the greatest chance will come on Tuesday evening. The 18Z sounding on Tuesday showed greater CAPE values nearing 1000 J/kg and a veering wind profile, meaning that the possibility for thunderstorms Tuesday evening can not be ruled out.

-Millsap

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Cloudy. High: 76

Monday Night: Rain. Low:52

 

Tuesday: Cloudy with rain. High: 65

 

Tuesday Night: Rain with possibility of Thunderstorms. Low: 42

 

Wednesday: Cloudy with rain. High: 50

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

Spring has sprung! Right now, mid-Missouri is currently under a Hazardous Weather Outlook for elevated fire danger today and the chance of thunderstorms tonight. The SPC has put mid-Missouri in a marginal risk of severe weather for tomorrow due to the possibility of hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of a tornado. Most of the severe weather will stay in the southern half of the United States, but continue to stay weather aware for Tuesday! A low pressure system originating in the southwestern region of the United States will make its way to the mid-Missouri region which will dominate our weather pattern for the first half of the week.  This will make for above average temperatures and a chance for precipitation for most of the first half of the week. Precipitation totals after this event will range from trace amounts to a quarter of an inch. Make sure to keep those umbrellas handy for this week!

 

- Gromada

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Forecasters: Baker, Gromada, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/21/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecasting shift, the NAM was the model of choice due to the handling of temperatures and the low pressure system tracking northeast from the Four Corners area into the Central Plains Monday into Tuesday. The problem of the day consists of the low pressure system moving across the Central Plains begins to occlude as it parks itself over western Kansas. Thunderstorm possibility is light, as persistent rain will cover the CWA Monday night into Wednesday morning. Cooler conditions will be expected Wednesday as the occluding system parks itself over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

An elongated shortwave trough begins to deepen and push northeast Monday morning. Ahead of the system, strong southerly winds from the south reach up to 60 kts over mid-Missouri leading into Monday evening will bring deep low-level moisture to the area from the Gulf of Mexico.  This is evident on IR satellite imagery, as low level clouds begin to populate over the Southern Plains region.

As the system pushes northeast into the Central Plains, divergence values begin to increase as a jet streak is evident on the right side of the trough. This jet streak combined with the one situated over the Northern Ohio River Valley gives way to divergence aloft as the left entrance region, and right exit regions couple. As the jet streak on the right side of the trough approaches a ridge, it will lead to an imbalance of forces leading to increased divergence and vertical motion, evident on 250-mb Divergence values Tuesday at 10Z. The entrance region then will strengthen due to frontogenesis aloft. 

Along with the large values of divergence in the upper level, the 500-mb vorticity map shows a similar story. A band of lift and spin connected to the low pressure system over the Four Corners begins to weaken after making its progress across the Central Plains late Monday into Tuesday afternoon. As the system begins to occlude, the cold, upper level low parks itself over western Kansas. Values of lift and spin begin to move over mid- Missouri around 02Z Tuesday. It then cycles through the area with a few weaker values between 07Z and 09Z. Another shortwave rides along the upper level meridional flow as it moves south closer to mid-Missouri down from central Canada.  This strengthening system should be closely monitored by future forecasters.

As the system pushes northeastward throughout Monday afternoon into the evening, a LLJ sets up early Monday morning southerly winds across the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley regions. 50-60kts LLJ will surge the area with warm temperatures and low level moisture, evident in low level clouds that will move in later Monday afternoon. These large values will help feed the low pressure system as it moves its way across the central Plains. Rain begins late evening Monday night, and will stick around through Wednesday morning.

With the help of the LLJ, cloud cover could impact the temperatures to be not as warm as yesterday, but the southerly wind will still keep it in the lower 70s. Tight solenoids are evident on the 500-1000mb Thickness map late evening Monday. WAA mixed with the strong LLJ will bring some instability to the area as the system approaches; however, CAPE values stay below 500 J kg^-1 so thunderstorms should not be likely, but with the large amount of lift shown at 03Z Tuesday, a few rumbles could be possible as seen on the sounding.

As the system begins to occlude over mid-Missouri, the cold air to the west of the cyclone advances rapidly southward around the center of the low pressure, cutting it off. With temperatures cooling down Wednesday due to the occlusion of the system, chances of mixed precipitation is low and the main form of precipitation will be rain for the remaining of the forecast period. Rain amounts will total to around 0.5-.99'' Monday night into Tuesday with trace amounts Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

 

-Baker

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 Friday Night: Rain. Low: 38

Saturday: Clear and sunny. High: 56

 Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 38

 Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 70

Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 48

General Discussion:

You'll definitely need your umbrella if you're going to go outside tonight as Missouri is going to be coming off of a pretty rainy day on Friday. A low pressure system will slowly move east shortly after midnight on Friday, causing the rain to stop going into Saturday morning. Due to the system moving east this will cause for slightly clearer skies over the next few days vs the cloudy day Missouri had on Friday. Southerly winds will also contribute to this forecast resulting in temperatures warming back up over the next few days with partly cloudy skies. 

-Watts

Forecasters: Watts, McDonald, Ethridge, Travis

Date Issued: 3/18/22 3:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Today’s forecast concerns the future of rain chances in Missouri, as well as the ceiling for which temperatures can rebound before another trough comes through next week. The GFS was used for this forecast, as it better initialized the low situated to our east. 

 

In the upper atmosphere, an almost vertically aligned jet streak is exiting the state, likely bringing with it any decreasing convection and activity. By 00z Saturday it’s influence will no longer be felt, and atmospheric flow will be contained to our south by the gulf states. This will likely enhance inactive conditions lower in the atmosphere, but the jetstream will shift back into the state by Sunday afternoon, likely accompanied by a modest ridge. This should help to bring temperatures to above average values for the day, but the approach of an oncoming trough on Monday may jeopardize the regime. 

 

At 500 mb, vorticity remains plentiful, but will slowly degrade throughout the night. Some extra convection is able to wrap around in from the north, likely elongating the chance of rain showers, but will decrease with each pulse. By 0z Sunday any traces of vorticity are completely gone, and Sunday looks to be free of any convective aid. Westerly flow brings a lack of vorticity until Monday, where strong, tightly wrapped values appear to be strengthening as they approach Missouri. 

The 700mb level shows a good amount of moisture currently over Missouri and Kansas. This moisture persists until late Friday night when it moves off to the east. Dry air sets in over the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains throughout the remainder of the weekend before another round of moisture moves in on Monday.

At 850mb, we see warm air from Texas beginning to make its way northward as the weekend progresses. We can expect temperatures to steadily rise once the precipitation moves out overnight Friday. The warm air does not make it as far north as Missouri, however, so temperatures shouldn’t get any higher than they were during this past week.

At the surface exists some distinct solenoids with a low-pressure system moving over Missouri overnight Friday and then off towards the northeast. High pressure is over the Central Rockies for part of the weekend, but never pushes any further eastward. Conditions should be calm and mild for the forecast period while the ridge moves over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

The GFS sounding shows rain persisting until around 3am (CDT) overnight on Friday. After this bout of precipitation, the remainder of the weekend should remain relatively dry with few clouds in the upper levels through Sunday.

-McDonald , Ethridge 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Rain all day. High: 54

Friday Night: Rain ending after midnight. Low: 38

Saturday: Clearing sky by morning. Sunny. High: 56

 

Saturday Night: Clear and cold. Low: 38

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High: 70

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion: 

 

Don't forget your umbrella today! A low pressure system brings clouds and rain to mid-Missouri Friday morning, which will stick around throughout the day and night. Rainfall accumulation with this storm will range from 0.75 to 1 inch. As the system moves east, the sky will clear in the early hours Saturday morning, with a cool and clear day in store for the start of the weekend. Southerly winds will lead to a warmer and partly cloudy day on Sunday as the weekend comes to a close.

-VanUnnik

 

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/18/2022 10:00AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

 

The impact of the system currently over the Midwest will be the main issue for this forecast period. While both models handled positioning of the LPS fairly well, the GFS was a bit more accurate in its rendering of current temperatures as the NAM was slightly colder than was is being observed. Therefore, the GFS will be utilized for this forecast period. NBM data will be used to pin down temperatures through the weekend as well as precipitation accumulation associated with the Friday system pushing through the Midwest.

At 250 mb, the upper level shortwave responsible for the low pressure system over the Central Plains is well amplified stretching from central Canada down through the Dakotas into the Southern Plains. This shortwave is embedded in a much broader longwave trough over the entirety of the western CONUS with ridging over the eastern half of the country. A the entrance region of a south-north oriented jet streak is draped over east central Missouri as the jet wraps itself in the axis of the ridge to the east over the Great Lakes. This trough pushes through the Midwest today and by 06Z tonight the meriodional flow over the CONUS morphs into a more ridge-trough-ridge pattern. The axis of the trough pushes through the central CONUS by 00Z on Sunday. Upper level flow that was zonal as the axis of the longwave trough pushed through the Midwest will veer to a shorter northwest flow as a jet streak develops there over the northern Plains by 06Z Sunday. The ridge pushing this trough east will transition into the Plains through the day on Sunday.

Copious amounts of vorticity will preside over central Missouri associated with the energetic shortwave trough stationed in the Midwest Friday. This activity will remain in place over the region until 00Z on Sunday as the upper level trough slides to the east and the aforementioned ridge builds into the Central Plains. The ridge keeps the central CONUS vorticity free for the remainder of the period though the next shortwave that will impact the area early next week is evident carrying large amounts of vorticity over an area from the Baja of California up through western Montana. 

The lower levels are saturated at both 700 and 850 mb's thanks to the LPS over the Midwest on Friday. Though the LLJ at 850 mb associated with the system is modest at best, the center of low pressure currently over Tulsa, OK will drift slowly to the northeast over southern Missouri today. This places the forecast area in the moisture rich precipitation shield of the system lending to higher precipitation amounts today. GFS model soundings eradicate moisture from the sounding dramatically between 09Z and 12Z Saturday morning. While some CAPE is present Friday morning and early afternoon the sounding also sports CIN values that inhibit convection as this looks to mainly be a rain event for the mid-Missouri region. Rainfall accumulations for Friday and Friday night will range from 0.75 to 1 inch. The profile stabilizes as the ridge to the west moves in promoting a fair weather weekend Saturday and Sunday. As the forecast period comes to an end Sunday afternoon the profile begins to saturate from the top down and lift is present as the next system to impact the region begins to impact the Midwest.

Future forecasters should monitor this new system out west for rainfall impacts and the chance for convective development early next week.

 -Bongard