Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 40

 

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm. High: 78

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 39

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 56

 

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 38

 

   

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Discussion:

    This is a great week to get outside and soak up warm temperatures and sunshine! After weeks of the winter weather roller-coaster, the first day of March has blessed us with warm temperatures and clear skies. This pattern will continue throughout the middle of the week as high pressure to the southeast sends warm air from the south into Mid-Missouri. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s on Wednesday along with a clear sky. Late Wednesday evening a cold front passes through Columbia bringing cooler temperatures and a cloudier sky, but no precipitation is expected. Enjoy the spring-like weather!

-Duff

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr
Date Issued: 3/1/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

What a welcome to meteorological spring! Clear skies and temperatures that are 20 degrees above the monthly average are all due to a high pressure system over the Texan Gulf Coast and the jet streams being split around Missouri. We will be getting a dry cold front in the mid-week, but other than that March is entering like a lamb. For the forecast through Thursday night, we went with the NAM as the primary diagnostic model, due to its handling of the upper troposphere. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF were all performing similarly, likely because of the extremely calm conditions over the central CONUS. The NBM was also used for temperatures and we added in the HRRR to help decide the timing of the cold front. With the dry, warm air and some light to moderate winds, there is a chance of enhanced fire weather risks.

Just as we have been the past few days, Mid-Missouri is between the Polar and Sub-Tropical jet streams. The Polar jet is up near the Great Lakes region and the Sub-Tropical jet is flowing over Texas. This pattern will continue until a ridge, currently over the Rockies and northwest Mexico, begins moving east and shoves the Sub-Tropical jet to the northeast. The Sub-Tropical jet will begin moving into Kansas Thursday and Missouri Thursday night. We are not expecting any impacts from this feature during our forecasting period, however future forecasters should be aware of it.

As stated above, there is a high pressure system that is dominating our weather pattern. Currently, it is over east Texas helping drive warm and dry into the Great Plains. This flow of warm air will be interrupted by a dry, cold front early Wednesday evening. Winds are expected to shift from the south to the northeast at this time and cool us off over night, keeping our Thursday high temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, the dry, warm air and light to moderate winds could create a wildfire hazard. Sustained winds are not expected to exceed 15kts, but there could be gusts up to 20kts. The ground does still have some moisture left over from the snow-melt, so fire hazard impacts should be lessened. All in all, if you plan on having an open fire, be aware of a sudden spread of the fire and have a plan to contain it.

Another feature worth noting is the moisture in the Polar jet. As mentioned above, the Polar jet is expected to stay north of Missouri. However, if it were to push farther south, we could expect cooler temperatures and possibly some showers. Likely time for showers to occur, if the jet were to shift south, would be Wednesday evening with the cold front. This is not likely to occur, though.

Next shift should watch the Polar jet, to make sure it is not sliding south, and be prepared for a possible warm front moving through on Friday.

-Alexander