Friday, March 11, 2022

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Friday Night:
Clearing clouds after sunset. Low: 10


Saturday:
Clear. High: 29


 

Saturday Night: Few clouds: 23



Sunday:
Clear. High: 54

 


Sunday Night: Few clouds. Low: 38


 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

Frigid cold temperatures are expected for Friday night, so be sure to dress warmly if you plan on going out. Saturday will also be cold, but not nearly as cold as Friday. A dream of spring will arrive Sunday, bringing some much needed relief from the cold temperatures of the previous few days. Skies will clear up throughout the weekend as well. Expect a few clouds overnight Saturday and Sunday, but will be mostly clear during the day. 

-Ethridge


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Forecasters: Ethridge, Watts

Date Issued: 3/11/2022 10:00AM CST


Technical Discussion: 
 

Both the GFS215 and NAM40 models in NTL were used for this forecast. The College of DuPage website, along with SREF and GEFS plumes, were consulted as well. The weather will be fairly calm throughout the forecast period with the main issue being the frigid cold temperatures overnight on Friday. Sunday, however, will see a sharp increase in temperature.

Looking at the GFS215 and the NAM40 on NTL at the 250mb level, both show a long wave trough is situated over most of the CONUS with a jet streak over southeastern Missouri and Arkansas. As the trough moves to the east we will be getting northerly flow through Saturday transitioning to zonal flow on Sunday. Wind speeds are high with the jet streak to our south, but they slow as it moves east after Friday night.

At the 500mb level, as the center of the trough moves past Missouri, there exists some strong circulation over our region. After Friday night, however, the remainder of the period remains relatively calm. A ridge moves over our area on Sunday allowing us some relief from the cold temperatures. 

Saturday morning, relative humidity will be followed by convergence with a downward motion impacting Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley throughout the entirety of this forecast period resulting in a partly cloudy/mostly clear forecast. Negative omega will also impact the same regions but will be its strongest near southern Missouri and northern Arkansas as expected. 

At 850mb a strong positively titled trough followed by weak winds will drift over the Mid-Missouri region that doesn’t exist until Sunday night. A cold front will also impact the Midwest Friday night going until Saturday resulting in cold temperatures dominating majority of this forecast.

Cold air advection with mostly clear skies will lead to cold temperatures starting off this forecast as temperatures are going to continue to be below freezing until Sunday, which is when temperatures are going to begin to warm up. 

 

Ethridge, Watts

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