Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Cloudy. High: 35

Monday Night: Becoming clear. Low: 22

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: 46

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 29

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: 49

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:

 After the taste of spring temperatures mid-Missouri saw last week, the winter chill has made a comeback.  Even with spring right around the corner, temperatures this week will be slightly below average for mid-March. High temperatures will stay above freezing and no precipitation is expected for the start of the week. Currently a low pressure system is dominating our region, until a high pressure system settles in later today. Conditions will remain calm for the rest of the forecast period. Looking at the week ahead, it seems more winter weather is on the way, so stay tuned for timing and accumulation updates! 

- Gromada

=================================================================

Forecasters: Baker, Bongard, Gromada

Date Issued: 3/7/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecast period, it seems that the weather will be quite calm, but cooler than last week for mid-Missouri. The model that was chosen for this shift was the GFS as it seemed to handle the cooling temperature trend better than the NAM. Soundings and NBM were used as a guidance for this forecast as it seemed to have a grasp on sky conditions and temperatures for the beginning of the week.

This weekend's low pressure system has pushed northwest out of the CWA, as the cold front attached to the system moved northwest to southeast through the state Sunday evening. Trailing precipitation and left over moisture will give way to a few sprinkles this morning in southeast Missouri, while mixed precipitation could fall in central and north Missouri.  Accumulations will be limited to grassy or elevated surfaces. Travel will not be impacted as the cold, dry air will quickly replace these conditions Monday morning.

As the low pressure system pushes east Monday, a high pressure system will fills its place. The high pressure system will push east into the Middle Mississippi Valley bringing in cool, dry conditions starting Monday afternoon. Winds will be out of the northwest bringing in cooler, drier temperatures. Overcast conditions and winds will keep temperatures cooler than average today with highs getting up to the middle 30s.

Northwesterly flow at the surface sporting 30 knot winds Monday morning as the cooler temperatures move into the middle Mississippi Valley. The dry air will help eliminate the clouds throughout the day into the night, Monday. Cloud cover will break overnight due to the dry air moving in. Clearing throughout the night will give way to the warmer temperatures forecasted on Tuesday.

Westerly flow aloft will be disturbed by a shortwave pattern over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A surface low associated with this shortwave will push through the lower Mississippi Valley, keeping precipitation south of the CWA. A LLJ associated with this system was seen over the Southeastern United States. The moisture and wind profile for this system will inhibit any precipitation for the mid-Missouri area Wednesday; however, this will lead to upper level clouds and partly cloudy conditions Wednesday. Slight circulation is seen over the area on the 500-mb vorticity map; however, due to the drier conditions, cloud cover will be the only condition to forecast for. Relative humidity values stay quite low as the persistent northwest flow dominates the area.

A long wave begins to deepen over the Four Corners area Wednesday and begins to move into the Rockies, future forecasters should monitor this system closely.

-Baker