Friday, March 25, 2022

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field





Friday:
Partly cloudy, clearing in the evening. High: 58





Friday Night:
Clear. Low: 32





Saturday:
Scattered clouds. High: 50






Saturday Night:
Few clouds. Low: 30

 

 


Sunday:
Partly cloudy. High: 48

 

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Discussion:

After a soggy work week the Columbia area can look forward to a calm, but cool weekend forecast. The previous system has pushed to the east (finally) and behind it a ridge bringing fair weather will give the region a tranquil Saturday and Sunday weather pattern. Northerly winds will keep temperatures on the cool side for late March, but with the ridge influencing the Midwest no precipitation is expected as the University of Missouri heads into Spring Break.

-Bongard

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/25/2022 10:00AM CDT


Technical Discussion: 
 

The 06Z run of NAM40 was utilized for this forecast, along with NAM forecast soundings. Both the NAM40 and GFS20 were running low for temperatures this morning; Sanborn Field had an observed low of 38 degrees Fahrenheit, while GFS had a low of 32F, and NAM had a low of 34F. Due to the inaccuracy of both model outputs, the NBM was consulted for temperature forecasting as well. As a result of model inaccuracy the problem of this forecast period was gauging high and low temperatures through the weekend.
As a meridional flow takes over the CONUS leading into this weekend, a slow-moving ridge makes it way to the Midwest. Due to being stuck in the downstream of said ridge for the entirety of the forecast period, Missouri will experience northwesterly flow. This will lead to cooler, more seasonal temperatures for central Missouri. The jet stream remains positioned downstream on the eastern side of the ridge, strengthening upper-level flow over the area.
A low pressure system originating over Minnesota makes its way southeast, passing to the east of Missouri at 500mb on Friday night. Vorticity associated with the low pressure system will pass to the east of the Mississippi River, and Missouri's weather remains influenced by the ridge over the western CONUS. 
A dry air intrusion associated with the aforementioned low pressure system rids Missouri of moisture on Friday, leading to clear skies in the evening and overnight. Moisture will return to mid-Missouri late Saturday morning at 700mb, but below remains dry according to NAM model soundings, so precipitation is not expected but scattered clouds will be the rule for the remainder of the forecast period. 

-VanUnnik

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