Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday: Mostly Clear. High: 67

 

Tuesday Night: Few Clouds. Low: 46

 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 72

 

Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 49

 

Thursday: Scattered Clouds. High: 69

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

It will be a great day for baseball as Saint Louis University comes to town to take on Mizzou. Tuesday's high will reach the mid-60s by first pitch at 4pm. The sky will see fewer clouds and more sun until Thursday evening as clouds build in ahead of a low-pressure system that will bring with it rain by the end of the week. Temperatures will stay springlike as Wednesday will peak in the lower 70s. The same low-pressure system will knock these temperatures down significantly for Friday.

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Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 3/15/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

Spring is in the air as we move past pi day and towards St. Patrick's day! Seasonable temperatures are in store for the first half of the week before showers roll into the area Thursday night into Friday. For this forecast, GFS was the main model used. NAM and GFS were performing similarly, but GFS seemed to have a better hold on the LPS that is currently moving through Arkansas. The NBM was also used to aid in temperature forecasting.

Divergence is scarce at 250 mb over the Midwest for the majority of this forecast period. There is a strong upper level low over Arkansas, but as it begins to close off, it makes it way over to the East, not having much effect on Missouri. Thursday night into Friday is when divergence the jet stream makes it's way over the middle Mississippi river valley, alluding to the fact that some sort of precipitation is possible for Friday. 

There's a similar story at the 500-mb level, with not much to see in terms of vorticity besides the LPS over Arkansas and the uptick Thursday night into Friday. There is weak ridging that appears over the Midwest Wednesday, which appears in the lower levels as well. 

Looking at relative humidity, the 700-mb level doesn't have much to offer for Missouri until we reach Thursday night into Friday. This is when precipitation is likely to occur, since this is when divergence aloft, vorticity, and moisture all appear. 

In addition to that, a weak LLJ over the Midwest at 850 mb gives the atmosphere the opportunity to moisten up even more. However, looking at moisture transport vectors reveals that this isn't very effective. Besides that, a LPS appears to move over the middle Mississippi river valley Friday into the weekend. 

At the surface, this low still appears on Friday, and before that predominantly southern winds bring mild temperatures at the surface, which is what gives us that lovely spring feel. Looking at soundings, there doesn't appear to be much in terms of moisture until Thursday night, partially due to that slight ridging that appears in the lower levels. Thursday night is when things finally start to get interesting as the atmosphere moistens up. Past that moisture; however, things are honestly quite boring. As of right now, there isn't much in terms of CAPE or even p-watts, meaning that rumbles of thunder aren't very likely, and neither is the chance for a significant rain event. So, while scattered showers are definitely possible, it doesn't appear as if it will be more than just some spotty rain. Future forecasting shifts will want to keep an eye on this system to look at timing and if anything changes. Have a great day! 

 

-Cade