Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 Friday Night: Rain. Low: 38

Saturday: Clear and sunny. High: 56

 Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 38

 Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 70

Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 48

General Discussion:

You'll definitely need your umbrella if you're going to go outside tonight as Missouri is going to be coming off of a pretty rainy day on Friday. A low pressure system will slowly move east shortly after midnight on Friday, causing the rain to stop going into Saturday morning. Due to the system moving east this will cause for slightly clearer skies over the next few days vs the cloudy day Missouri had on Friday. Southerly winds will also contribute to this forecast resulting in temperatures warming back up over the next few days with partly cloudy skies. 

-Watts

Forecasters: Watts, McDonald, Ethridge, Travis

Date Issued: 3/18/22 3:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Today’s forecast concerns the future of rain chances in Missouri, as well as the ceiling for which temperatures can rebound before another trough comes through next week. The GFS was used for this forecast, as it better initialized the low situated to our east. 

 

In the upper atmosphere, an almost vertically aligned jet streak is exiting the state, likely bringing with it any decreasing convection and activity. By 00z Saturday it’s influence will no longer be felt, and atmospheric flow will be contained to our south by the gulf states. This will likely enhance inactive conditions lower in the atmosphere, but the jetstream will shift back into the state by Sunday afternoon, likely accompanied by a modest ridge. This should help to bring temperatures to above average values for the day, but the approach of an oncoming trough on Monday may jeopardize the regime. 

 

At 500 mb, vorticity remains plentiful, but will slowly degrade throughout the night. Some extra convection is able to wrap around in from the north, likely elongating the chance of rain showers, but will decrease with each pulse. By 0z Sunday any traces of vorticity are completely gone, and Sunday looks to be free of any convective aid. Westerly flow brings a lack of vorticity until Monday, where strong, tightly wrapped values appear to be strengthening as they approach Missouri. 

The 700mb level shows a good amount of moisture currently over Missouri and Kansas. This moisture persists until late Friday night when it moves off to the east. Dry air sets in over the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains throughout the remainder of the weekend before another round of moisture moves in on Monday.

At 850mb, we see warm air from Texas beginning to make its way northward as the weekend progresses. We can expect temperatures to steadily rise once the precipitation moves out overnight Friday. The warm air does not make it as far north as Missouri, however, so temperatures shouldn’t get any higher than they were during this past week.

At the surface exists some distinct solenoids with a low-pressure system moving over Missouri overnight Friday and then off towards the northeast. High pressure is over the Central Rockies for part of the weekend, but never pushes any further eastward. Conditions should be calm and mild for the forecast period while the ridge moves over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

The GFS sounding shows rain persisting until around 3am (CDT) overnight on Friday. After this bout of precipitation, the remainder of the weekend should remain relatively dry with few clouds in the upper levels through Sunday.

-McDonald , Ethridge