Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Wednesday Night: Increasing cloudiness. Low: 49

 

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 75

 

Thursday Night: Cloudy with rain beginning after midnight. Low: 49

 

Friday: Cloudy with rain throughout the day. High: 50

 

Friday Night: Cloudy, rain ending before midnight. Low: 35

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Discussion:

Students could be seen filling the quad today at Mizzou as Wednesday saw sunshine and spring-like temperatures. This clear sky will slowly see increased cloud cover overnight due to increased moisture in Columbia. St. Patrick’s Day on Thursday will see temperatures in the 70s brought into the state by southerly winds. Clouds will increase Thursday evening as a low pressure system moves east from Colorado. This system, with ample moisture and circulation, will impact Missouri Thursday night with rainfall expected after midnight. Mizzou’s campus will continue to see rain throughout the day Friday. If you will be out of the house, be sure to grab your umbrella or a raincoat. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day. The high of 50 will be reached around 6am, afternoon temperatures will be in the upper to mid 40s. Rain accumulation is expected to be around 1 inch.

-Heienickle

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 3/16/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

For this forecast, the NAM was used over the GFS. Although the two models were remarkably similar in current temperatures as of 21Z Wednesday afternoon, the NAM had a better handle on moisture and placement of the low pressure system over the deep south. This forecast deals with the rain chances on Friday along with the falling temperatures associated with a cold front. 

Mid-MO is between two troughs at the 300-mb level. The leading trough is centered over the southeastern United States, placing Missouri in westerly flow at the upper level. The second trough is over the Rocky Mountains, moving eastward into the central Plains by Thursday. As that trough begins to move, upper level winds turn out of the southwest on Thursday. Divergence at the upper level arrives in central Missouri after 05Z Friday but moves away by 12Z Friday. Once the trough moves away, Missouri returns to a westerly flow. 

Warm Air Advection is present over Missouri and the southern U.S. through the day on Thursday into Friday morning ahead of the second trough. Temperatures on Thursday will be well above the climatological average for mid-March. 

Large amounts of circulation enter Mid-MO after 09Z Friday with the aforementioned trough moving overhead. This, along with the high amounts of relative humidity at the same time, suggest the likelihood of precipitation with this trough throughout the day on Friday. Both the vorticity and the higher RH amounts hold through the end of the forecast period. 

NAM soundings suggest the precipitation that will fall will remain rain. Precipitable water values hover around 0.9" which is above the climatological value in March in Missouri, suggesting the potential for some heavier rain. The high pwat value, combined with the duration of the rain on Friday suggests rain amounts could be around 1". This is supported by the NBM, which shows a 44% chance of Columbia receiving at least an inch of rain. 

Soundings from the NAM also support some CAPE values over Missouri between 100-500 J/kg which brings the possibility of some thunder with the rain. Severe chances are minimal as CAPE amounts will be too low and none of the other severe weather ingredients will be present. 

After the front moves through Friday morning, temperatures will begin to fall throughout the day on Friday. By 06Z Saturday, temperatures will fall into the mid-30s for the overnight low. As the temperature falls, much of the atmosphere will be above freezing but soundings keep a warm layer around the 850mb. The warm layer and above freezing surface temperatures keep any wintry precipitation away Friday night into Saturday. Any precipitation should be moving out of central Missouri by 12Z Saturday. 

-Meyer