Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




Tuesday:
Partly cloudy. High: 46

 


Tuesday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 29

 


Wednesday:
Cloudy. High: 49

 


Wednesday Night:
Overcast. Low: 30

 


Thursday:
Overcast. Flurries possible. High: 41


Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:

After some record breaking warm temperatures last week and a few storms this weekend, Missouri is back with some seasonably cool temperatures. Clouds dominate the sky this forecast period along with a high pressure system that's making it's way through the Midwest. This high pressure along with winds out of the N/NW are causing cool and calm conditions. Thursday is when a chance for some flurries starts to rise, but as of right now, it's still a bit unclear exactly when/if this will happen. With all of the clouds and the chance for precipitation on Thursday, this week would be a great week for some spring cleaning and self care. Don't let the clouds get you down!

- Cade

=================================================================

Forecasters: Cade, Travis

Date Issued: 3/8/2022 10:00 AM CST


Technical Discussion:


A relatively “quiet” pattern has set up over much of the CONUS. The main focus for this period is a weak shortwave that will impact the region overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Due to a data outage in our lab, the NAM was used due to its availability of data over the GFS. The NAM and GFS have good consensus with each other and within themselves as seen in the GEFS and SREF plumes, until Thursday night when the next system will impact the forecast area.

A jet streak seen over the Ohio River Valley in the 250-hPa plots of height and wind will propagate eastward putting mid-Missouri in the left entrance region and therefore a convergence dominated pattern. Weak divergence can be seen beginning early Wednesday as the jet continues to move to the east. A shortwave seen in both this map and 500-hPa absolute vorticity, will round the base of the LW trough over the western half of the CONUS resulting in PVA from the southwest. This is set to impact the region overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. 

700 hPa and NAM soundings reveal a pathetic lack of moisture throughout the atmosphere. Soundings reveal what could be a saturated layer with respect to ice between 500 and 700 hPa. However, with weak forcing and a near 10 degree DD at the surface, this will only show itself in the form of mid-level cloudiness. 

Pesky wintertime temperatures will persist for the remainder of the forecast period as the 0-Celsius isotherm at 850 hPa stays well to the south over the MO-AR border. Low-level winds remain out of the NNW until the end of the period as the next system approaches the region from the west. Winds turn southerly, but are weak in nature likely resulting in weak WAA and little moisture advection. Longer-range NAM soundings do indicate a much more saturated profile with a dry layer present in the mid-levels. Could see some seeder feeder support of low-level cloud ice from upper-level clouds if forcing is strong enough. However this is beyond the scope of this forecast period and thus is a topic for future forecasters. MSLP plots support many of the above claims as surface high pressure associated with the convergent pattern aloft remains over the area despite the intrusion of the weak, upper-level low. 

- Travis

No comments:

Post a Comment