Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 30

Thursday: Cloudy, snow beginning in the early afternoon. High: 37

Thursday Night: Overcast, snow. Low: 26

Friday: Overcast and snow in the morning, cloudy in the afternoon. High: 33

Friday Night: Clearing. Low: 15

 

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Discussion:

Winter weather on another Thursday - deja vu! A sunny sky Wednesday afternoon will soon be filled with clouds as a low pressure system in the northern portion of the United States will impact Missouri. Thursday will see potential for light snow as Missouri sits on the eastward side of a trough. This trough will strengthen due to some warm, dry air coming in from the south. Beginning Thursday night, a cold front will move through Missouri dropping temperatures and bringing precipitation with it. Thursday and Friday will see strong winds and a snow accumulation of around 1". The chance for snow will drop significantly as a dry layer is introduced to the mid-atmosphere. Clouds will begin to decrease throughout the day, giving way to a clear sky Friday night. 

- Heienickle

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Forecasters: Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 3/09/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

Although the GFS and NAM both forecasted colder temperatures than the observed temperature for Wednesday afternoon, both models accurately portrayed the low pressure system over Colorado. Further, this forecast used a blend of the 12Z run of the GFS and the NAM. The greatest question for this forecast is the timing and quantity of the potential winter weather mix expected Thursday and Friday. 

At 250-mb, the continental United States is seen in a meridional flow due to a slight trough with its axis over Montana. A weak jet streak is seen over Missouri beginning 21Z Thursday; these northerly winds stay over Columbia at the upper level until 06Z Friday. The northerly flow shifts westerly around 00Z Friday and wind speeds decrease. An increase in winds occurs as a jet streak reappears over Columbia with strong northwesterly winds; these high winds at 110-kts persist until 03Z Saturday. The axis of the trough, moving east from Montana, will be over Missouri 06Z Saturday. 

Vorticity is not seen over Columbia at the 500-mb height Wednesday afternoon. The city will begin to see weak circulation 06Z Thursday moving eastward from Kansas. This weak vorticity will remain over Missouri for the remainder of the forecasting period. Strong vorticity will impact Missouri 18Z Friday coming from the deepening of a trough moving east over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Vorticity will leave Missouri around 12Z Saturday.  

The midwest is dry Wednesday afternoon with no areas of increased levels of relative humidity seen at 700-mb. A sunny sky in Columbia this afternoon is supported by this lack of moisture. From the northwest, increased moisture will move over Nebraska into the northern half of Missouri 12Z Thursday. Saturation will be present for the remainder of Thursday, supporting the potential for winter precipitation. This moisture begins to move south impacting mid-Missouri Thursday night and into Friday. The increased values of relative humidity at 700-mb will continue to move towards the southeast leaving Columbia by 21Z Friday. The area will return to dry conditions for the weekend.

Winds at 850-mb are weak and northerly. Winds begin to shift due to a low pressure system moving east over Oklahoma, shifting winds in Missouri to southerly 09Z Thursday. Southerly winds will remain until Thursday evening. Around 03Z Friday, a cold front will move over Missouri, seen by the shift to strong northerly winds. This will cause temperatures to drop Thursday night into Friday. Strong northerly winds with values around 30-kts will bring gusty weather conditions Friday. These winds will remain strong into the weekend.

At the surface, temperatures for Columbia currently are average for the beginning of March in the mid 30s. A high pressure system moves eastward over Iowa Wednesday afternoon, bring stable weather to Missouri. A low pressure system to the southwest can be seen strengthening over New Mexico at the same time as a low pressure system can be seen over northern Minnesota. This deep trough over Minnesota brings a cold front Thursday night with below freezing temperatures and northerly winds. 

The greatest potential for precipitation will be Thursday afternoon into mid-afternoon; temperatures will be below freezing at the surface and aloft showing snow. This potential for snow will continue throughout the night and into the morning Friday. Snow accumulations are forecasted around 1" for Missouri. Commuters should take caution on the road Thursday evening and Friday morning.

 

- Heienickle