Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 48

 

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 75

 

Wednesday Night: Scattered Clouds. Low: 49

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. Afternoon showers. High: 69  

 

Thursday Night: Rain overnight. Low: 42

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Discussion:

After a big cool down last week, temperatures in Mid-Missouri are on an upward trend this week. Temperatures will soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday as plenty of sunshine and a breezy southerly wind dominate the weather pattern. The end of the week is likely to be cooler and wetter as an approaching cold front and low pressure brings the potential for rain. The cold front is expected to pass around mid day on Thursday with the best chances for precipitation late and overnight on Thursday. Conditions after the passage of the front are expected to be cooler on Friday.

-Duff

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Forecasters: Alexander, Duff, Orr.

Date Issued: 3/15/2022 5:00PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

The Ides of March have brought nice weather upon mid-Missouri. Now is the perfect time to get out and warm up from the cold and wet winter that we have seen over the past few months. This pattern of nice weather will continue to Thursday when a low pressure system from Colorado will bring in rain and cooler temperatures Thursday afternoon and night. For this forecast, we went with the NAM as it has a better handle on the mid and upper-level conditions over the northern Rockies. Since that is where our next weather system will be coming from, it’s best we pay close attention to it. NBM was also used to help determine air temperatures.

Currently there is a low pressure system over Mississippi that is slowly heading east. It did cause some severe weather in the south yesterday, but it will not cause any major weather problems for us up here in Missouri. This low pressure system has put some moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere over our heads. Now the winds at those levels are stagnating, this moisture will stick around until the next low pressure system forces it out.

That next low pressure system will begin slowly forming overnight tonight in Colorado. It will take the moisture out of the northern Rockies and start quickly moving eastward Wednesday night. Once it starts moving, it will begin sucking up warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico via the LLJ. We will see the first effects of this low pressure system mid-morning Thursday as the moisture from the Rockies will enter the region from the northwest. Early afternoon Thursday, the warm, moist gulf air will begin entering mid-Missouri from the southwest. A cold front connected to this low pressure system is expected to pass over us around 18Z on Thursday. Between the cold front and the WAA, mid-level circulation which will increase in intensity as we move into the overnight hours, helping rain showers form. The highest CAPE values we have seen for this system are less than 200 J/kg, so no strong convective storm development is expected. There are significant amounts of Omega after midnight Friday morning. At 850mb, Omega projections are around -10 and at 500mb values near -20. These forcing values will lead to more intense rainfall after midnight.

A point of interest in our forecast is the 250mb jet stream. West of the Rockies, the polar jet stream is making a deep trough early in the week and part of the stream gets broken off and travels to the east on the south side of the Rockies. This jet streak seems to get pushed northeast via the sub-tropical jet and may couple with the polar jet stream Thursday evening over southern Missouri. There is uncertainty where the streak and the stream will meet, or if they even will couple, but if they do it could increase the intensity of the rainfall over southern and eastern Missouri.

Rain showers will begin afternoon on Thursday and continue through Thursday night and likely into Friday morning as well. Precipitation total for Thursday will be less than .25 inch and we could pick up around half an inch of rain Thursday night. Impacts of this rain will lead to a rainy commute Thursday evening and Friday morning, as well as the melting of most of the remaining snow piles. The next forecast shift should keep an eye on precipitation totals and if the jet streak and stream decide to couple up.

--Alexander