Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Becoming partly cloudy. High: 62

Monday Night: Cloudy with chance of rain. Low: 45

 

Tuesday: Clouds clear out for clear conditions. High: 65

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 46

 

Wednesday:Sunny. High: 70

 

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Discussion:

Has spring finally arrived? Above average temperatures are expected for the beginning of the week for central Missouri. A low pressure system will push east Monday afternoon and track south of the Missouri border. This system will track in high level clouds Monday afternoon into overnight. A chance of rain is possible overnight with trace amounts falling. However, as the system pushes east, clouds do not stick around long as they move out of the mid-Missouri area by Tuesday mid-morning. A clear sky is expected for the rest of the forecast period. So, get out and enjoy those spring-like temperatures. 

-Baker

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Forecasters: Baker, Gromada, Bongard

Date Issued: 3/14/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecasting shift, the GFS was the model of choice due to the handling of temperatures and the low pressure system tracking across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The problem of the day consists of the above average temperatures for the start of the week and the chance for precipitation tonight.

With a westerly flow at 250mb, the surface low located over the southern Rockies continues to push across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The low level jet over the southern Plains with winds speeds at about 30-40 knots is seen to be the cause of our above average temperatures for the middle of March. The low level jet is enhanced by the trough which is positioned over the central Plains Monday at 18Z. As the trough pushes southeast, an increase in divergence at 250mb associated with the low pressure system is seen in our region overnight into tomorrow. Vorticity also increases at 500mb overnight into tomorrow along with an increase in relative humidity in southern Missouri. This may lead to the chance of precipitation late tonight into tomorrow with only trace amounts of precipitation expected in our region.

The surface low continues to track southeast Tuesday into central Arkansas and our winds shift northerly by Tuesday at 12Z due to a shortwave pushing through our region. Clouds push out by Tuesday making for a mostly sunny day and as the low continues to track southeast and mid-Missouri sits on the backside of the low, winds shift coming from the west. For the rest of the forecast period through Wednesday, temperatures continue to be slightly above average with clear conditions until the next system pushes in Thursday.

-Gromada