Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 22

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: 46

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 29

Wednesday: Increasingly cloudy. High: 49

 

Wednesday Night: Overcast. Low: 30

 

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Discussion:

     After last weekend's storms and warmer temperatures, Mid-Missouri will see a return to calm weather and seasonable temperatures. A high pressure system blankets much of the lower Midwest and will continue to do so until Tuesday afternoon. This high pressure, in addition to northwesterly winds keep our temperatures cool. No precipitation is expected through Wednesday night, but keep an eye on the weather for some possible winter weather later this week.

 - McMullen

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Forecasters: Cochran, McMullen, Millsap

Date Issued: 3/7/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

The primary concern for this forecast was the gradual increase in temperatures and recurring cloudiness expected through the first part of the week. The GFS was the model utilized as guidance mainly due to its handling of surface temperatures which the NAM tended to overshoot. There was also greater consensus between models in the GEFS 2-m temperature plumes when compared to the SREF.

The low-pressure system experienced over the weekend has moved its way east of the CWA as a cold front has moved in its place. Cloud cover has lingered over Central Missouri on Monday, ensuring a lack of sunshine that helped to maintain cold temperatures throughout the day.

Zonal flow on 250 mb plots of wind speed and divergence suggests consistent conditions as the CWA remains straddled underneath the polar jet stream up until Tuesday night. At around 03 to 09Z Wednesday, a shortwave trough will push the jet stream toward the southeast. This shortwave coincides with a moderate burst in 500 mb circulation, indicating a shift of the jet stream away from Missouri. Since the jet stream will then be positioned to the south after this takes place, it is safe to conclude that temperatures will remain cool for the rest of the forecast period. Northwesterly winds at 850 mb which shift to northeasterly on Wednesday will also help maintain these cool temperatures.

The 700 mb relative humidity map shows moisture moving through Tuesday evening, possibly an indication of mid-level cloudiness. This possibility was further examined using 12Z soundings, where the 700-500 mb layer was relatively moist between 00 and 09Z Wednesday. Veering winds near the surface and modest Omega values - particularly at 03Z on Wednesday - may help to encourage increasing cloud cover. Precipitation does not appear likely due to the existence of dry layers through various portions of the atmosphere, particularly near the surface. However, winter precipitation may become a distinct possibility starting Thursday as a long wave trough begins moving through the Four Corners region. Future forecasters should be on the lookout for any developments associated with this feature.

-Millsap