Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Tuesday: Clear. High: 70

 

Tuesday Night: Starry sky. Low: 40

 

Wednesday: Clear and warm. High: 74

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 39 

 

Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 56

 

   

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Discussion:

   

Happy first day of March! We're starting the month off with some spring like temperatures. A high pressure system just to the East is causing warm temperatures, breezy winds, and clear skies over the next few days. With a lack of moisture; however, we do have the chance for some fire weather! With winds gusting up to 25 mph, it's important to keep any fires contained, keep flammable objects away from fires, and follow all local laws and regulations. Along with that, now would also be a great time to check and clean smoke alarms/carbon monoxide detectors! Besides that, be sure to get outside and enjoy the sunny weather.

-Cade

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Forecasters: Cade



Date Issued: 3/1/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

Some quiet and warm weather is in store for central Missouri as high pressure dominates the Midwest. There is also the chance for some fire weather with dry, windy conditions. GFS was chosen for this forecast as there seemed to be less spread in the GEFS plumes than in the SREF plumes, and GFS seemed to have a better handle on placement of the high than NAM. The NBM and GFS sounding were also used to aid this forecast.

A ridge is passing over the Mississippi river valley at 250 mb, which will be the pattern for the rest of this forecast. The polar jet stream resides across the upper Mississippi river valley, leaving Missouri with nothing much happening. Divergence in scarce as the ridge makes its way over on Wednesday through Thursday.

It's the same story for 500 mb as well, with not much going on besides a ridge moving through the Midwest. There's no vorticity over Missouri from Tuesday to Thursday as high pressure dominates.

At risk of sounding like a broken record, a ridge dominates the flow at 700 mb. There's little relative humidity over Missouri, leading to the potential for fire weather.

At 850 mb and the surface, the high pressure system resides just to the east of the Midwest, leaving Missouri with W/SW winds and clear skies. This, along with the ridging and lack of moisture aloft, means warm, quiet weather from Tuesday to Thursday. As previously mentioned, there is a potential for fire weather as dry, warm air dominates the Midwest along with sustained winds on Tuesday at 10-13 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Looking at soundings, the atmosphere stays dry from Tuesday to Thursday, meaning fire has the potential to spread rapidly. It is advised to keep outdoor fires contained as well as keep indoor fireplaces swept and clean, especially when in use. Now would be a great time to check and clean those smoke alarms and carbon monoxide detectors as well!

-Cade