Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 35

Tuesday: Clear. High: 70

 

Tuesday Night: Starry sky. Low: 40

Wednesday: Abundant sunshine. High: 72

 

 

Wednesday Night: Intermittent clouds. Low: 39

 

   

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Discussion:

   

 With Spring being just a few short weeks away, mid-Missouri will be getting its first taste of warmer weather this week. A large high pressure system will be making its way across the country throughout the week. With this, abundant sunshine and warm temperatures will be introduced, reaching into the lower 70s on Wednesday. The clear sky will give nighttime temperatures the opportunity to return to the seasonal average, dipping into the lower to mid 40s.

- Millsap

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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap, Cochran

Date Issued: 2/28/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion:

 

The 12Z run of the NAM40 was chosen for this forecast. The NAM was mainly chosen for its forecast temperatures on the SREF plumes. The observed current temperature and the forecasted temperature were very similar, in addition to the observed temperature being much warmer than forecasted on the GEFS plumes. Both surface maps were fairly similar when compared to the current surface map. The main focus of this forecast will be the warming temperatures over the next couple of days. 

 

Mid-Missouri is currently between two jet streaks when looking at the 250-mb plot of heights, winds, and divergence. Zonal flow dominates the region except for a small shift to meridional flow caused by a jet streak passing to the north from around 7Z to 18Z Tuesday. After this small disturbance, zonal flow continues to dominate the Midwest for the remainder of the forecast period. At the very end of the forecast period, a ridge covering the western CONUS begins to progress toward Missouri. No upper-level divergence is expected over Columbia. 

The passage of a small band of vorticity over Columbia around 21Z today, seen on the 500-mb plot of heights and voriticty, is the majority of the circulation that the area will see for the forecast period. With the exception of some spotty circulation over Missouri from 04Z to 12Z Wednesday, brought in by the previous mentioned upper-level ridge, there will be no circulation over the area for the remainder of the forecast period. 

A band of moisture traverses over the northern Mississppi River Valley and Ohio River Valley on the 700-mb plot of heights and relative humidity, but Missouri will remain dry for the majority of the forecast period. 

On the 850-mb plot of heights, winds, and temperature, Missouri's winds meander between W and NW for the entire period, with no particular direction monopolizing between the two. A mass of cold air remains over the the far northern Midwest and NE CONUS. An area of high pressure passes near the Gulf Coast, dictating the wind directions through midweek. 

 

Warm air advection, as seen on the plot of MSLP and 1000-mb to 500-mb thickness, helps to warm Mid-Missouri up for the beginning of this week. Southerly winds, in addition to solenoids, are over the area through 12Z Tuesday. At this time a LPS passing through Iowa causes the winds to shift to the west. After this, a HPS also drifts through Iowa, shifting the winds to the north

about 06Z Wednesday and eventually southerly for the remainder of the forecasting period. When looking at soundings, Mid-Missouri will remain fairly dry. Soundings become more moist from 12Z Wed to the end of the forecast period, but not saturated enough for cloud cover .

Future forecasters should look to the upper level ridge forming over the western CONUS on Thursday.

-McMullen