Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Sunny sky. High: 47
 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 28

 

 Tuesday: Sunny sky. High: 59

 

Tuesday Night: Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 47

 

Wednesday: Cloudy with rain. Falling temperatures throughout the day. High: 59

  

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Discussion:

   

A warm up is in store for your Valentines Day earlier this week before we see another storm system make its way into our area. Clear sky and warmer temperatures will move across the area Monday night into Tuesday with highs approaching the upper 50s and low 60s. Temperatures will continue to warm up until the rain begins Wednesday morning ahead of the cold front. Once the front passes Wednesday morning, rain and falling temperatures are in store for the rest of the day. Precipitation amounts will total to around 0.25-0.5" Wednesday.

 

-Baker

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Forecasters: Baker, Gromada, Bongard

Date Issued: 2/14/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

While doing model diagnostics, the NAM seemed to grasp the warmer temperatures for today and tomorrow better than the GFS.

Colder temperatures this past weekend were caused by a northwesterly flow aloft at 250-mb and a shortwave trough over the central CONUS. With slightly warmer temperatures for the start of this week compared to the weekend, Mid-Missouri should expect drier weather until Wednesday night where the possibility of precipitation returns.  The shortwave tough, that brought our colder temperatures, dips south and moves southeast this morning in the Great Lakes region with a very prominent subtropical jet, this brings a higher relative humidity value and explains the few clouds this morning. As the trough moves southeast out of the CONUS due to a deep dry layer in the atmosphere and no relative humidity seen at 700-mb, the region will remain dry until about mid-week where our next storm system moves in.

Milder temperatures will be combined with clear skies for today and Tuesday as the trough continues to move east. Tonight, the mid level pattern shows a relatively zonal flow with shallow ridging as an upper level low in the northwest CONUS begins to take shape. This trough in the northwestern CONUS dips south into the western CONUS giving us surface winds coming out of the south/southwest. The trough will be the cause of an eventful Wednesday and brings the possibility of rain and wintry precipitation Wednesday afternoon and night. The high temperature for Wednesday will occur in the morning thanks to a cold front approaching with a deepening trough and surface low in the southwest region of the CONUS. Due to a shortwave trough, the possibility of rain starts Wednesday morning for the region and increases as the system approaches the Midwest. Temperatures will continue to cool as a cold front pushes through later Wednesday night.  The timing of this event really depends on when the low in southwest CONUS ejects into the central CONUS and how it will track with the northern stream. This will be the ultimate determinate of when and how much precipitation Mid-Missouri will receive which for Wednesday rainfall amounts are estimated at 0.25 to 0.49 in. 

-Gromada

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