Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
General Discussion:
Don't put your snow boots away just yet! Icy roads are going to be a factor starting off this forecast but will melt away with temperatures warming up. This week we are officially going to be out of the winter weather watch pattern we've been going through the last few weeks because temperatures are getting warmer by the day. Clouds are going to be a small factor along with some moderate winds but nothing that'll cause rain because this forecast in going to be pretty clear and dry.
-Watts
Forecasters: Watts, Mcdonald, Ethridge, Travis
Date Issued: 2/25/2022 5:00PM CST
Technical Discussion:
The forecast for today focuses on temperatures warming significantly over the weekend, changing our current active pattern to one that is much more inactive. The GFS was primarily used for today’s forecast, as current surface conditions were initialized much better than the NAM.
In the upper atmosphere, Missouri sits right in the middle of the jet stream, with jet streaks only looking to intensify over the region throughout the next 48 hours. Saturday, from 3z to 12z in particular could see some of the strongest flow in the entire CONUS, with strong winds and considerable divergence aloft. This flow will enable any patterns dictated by factors in the levels below to work at a more rapid rate. By Sunday the jet stream dips southward and out of the state, leaving us in a gap with a similarly strong flow to our north. Winds shift sharply to the north at this time, indicating that a somewhat formidable FROPA may be occurring.
Underneath the powerful jet at 500 mb, conditions appear much more inactive. Steady and warm southwest winds continue all the way through Sunday 6z, when a strong line of vorticity in the form of a cold front passes through. Vorticity looks to be contained to only the front though, with none to be found immediately preceding or following the system. While this could signal a dip in overnight lows for Saturday evening/early Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that any precipitation will be found alongside it. Winds remain northerly after the passage, but resume a westerly component in the hours thereafter, indicating that the warming trend will only be paused temporarily.
The GFS 700mb level shows relatively low levels of moisture in Missouri for the duration of our forecast period. States to the southeast of Missouri, as well as our Boot-heel region, will see a good amount of moisture during the weekend, but it does not look likely to make its way far enough north to affect Columbia.
At the GFS 850mb level, the cold air over the Great Plains is beginning to move back north and warmer temperatures are settling in. We won’t see the intense temperature increase we saw at the beginning of this week, but it will become warmer and milder throughout the weekend. Winds at 850mb also look mild and not likely to cause any major problems during this forecast period.
At the surface, a high-pressure system is currently dominating the Great Plains region. A low-pressure system begins to work its way toward Missouri overnight on Saturday, but it doesn’t have the strength needed to persist and fizzles out before arrival.
The GFS sounding tells a similar story as the models. No precipitation is currently expected for the forecast period, but we will have some cloud cover overnight Friday in the upper levels. Skies become mostly clear from Saturday through Sunday, with small areas of moisture occurring at varying levels throughout. No major weather-related problems are expected for the next few days.
-McDonald, Ethridge
No comments:
Post a Comment