Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night: Scattered clouds. Low: 16

Saturday: Clear. High: 26

Saturday Night: Increasing cloudiness. Low: 20

 

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 29

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 20

   

   

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Discussion:

   

Chilly temperatures this weekend as a cold front passes through mid-Missouri. Clear skies during the day on Saturday and partly cloudy conditions going into Sunday. Expect lows in the upper teens throughout the weekend and windy conditions on Friday night and Saturday morning. Precipitation is not expected after Friday night. Look forward to a cold but dry Superbowl weekend in Columbia.

-Ethridge

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Forecasters: McDonald, Watts, Ethridge, Travis

Date Issued: 2/11/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The forecast for today focuses on both the oncoming cold front crossing through tonight, as well as this weekend’s trough. Temperature drops and further chances of rainfall were part of the primary concerns. The GFS was used to forecast, as it held a slight advantage over the NAM in initializing afternoon temperatures. 

 

In the uppermost levels of the atmosphere, jet streaks continue to flow over the region. Divergence does not look to be too strong, though, even as the streaks continue to flow over Missouri until Saturday 18z. The trough associated with this appears to be positively tilted, putting Missouri on it’s left side for the entirety of its duration in the area. 

 

Vorticity levels remain higher and more widespread through Saturday 15Z, when it begins to condense and smooth out. Even for the rest of the forecast period, though, levels will stay respectable through late Saturday night. Much of it appears to follow the path of the oncoming trough at the same time, with our area still being positioned on the inactive side. This should correlate to a continued, though slightly reduced, risk of showers through late tonight, clearing out for Saturday as we see breaks in the vorticity.

There is going to be high relative humidity with a trough at 700mb coming from the northwest drifting over the Midwest Friday night at 04Z at the beginning of the forecast. Then, the relative humidity is going to exit the Midwest and go into the northeast region along with the trough.

 

At 850 mb there is some weak westerly winds present that shifts to moderate northerly winds drifting over Missouri causing the temperatures to drop with a little bit of moisture causing some clouds to appear Saturday night going into Sunday.

 

The low pressure system is consistent throughout the whole forecasting period. The only inconsistency in the GFS model run in this forecast are the low to moderate winds. Since Saturday is going to have increasing clouds that confirms a cloudy Super bowl Sunday.  

-McDonald, Watts