Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Cloudy, then clearing in the afternoon. High: 52

Friday Night: Scattered clouds. Low: 16

Saturday: Clear. High: 26

Saturday Night: Increasing cloudiness. Low: 20

 

Sunday: Partly Cloudy. High: 29

 

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Discussion:

 

   

Cold weather is in store for mid-Missouri this weekend as a polar air mass pushes down into our region behind a cold front today. A shift to northwesterly winds behind this front and dry air aloft will lead to sinking low temperatures tonight and tomorrow morning. The cooling trend will continue Saturday as winds remain out of the northwest. As a surface low approaches our region Saturday night, expect cloud coverage after sunset until sunrise Sunday morning. Cold temperatures remain in place Super Bowl Sunday as the surface lows passes through our region. Currently no precipitation is expected Sunday morning, and temperatures will be in the low 20's around kickoff that night.

-Schneringer

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Forecasters: Schneringer, VanUnnik, Bongard

Date Issued: 2/11/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

    

The 06 Z run of GFS20 was used for this forecast. GFS reached more of a consensus with the temperature spread throughout the forecast period, along with being more accurate with the observed temperature at Sanborn Field this morning. The focus of this forecast is the positively tilted trough that takes hold of the eastern half of CONUS throughout the weekend, and how it is going to affect Columbia. 

 

The deepening of a trough takes hold of the Midwest throughout the weekend, beginning to exit the area on Sunday night. Jet streams are present on both the front and back end of the trough, with stronger winds on the front end, leading to a positive tilt.   

 

Southwesterly flow remains along with the moisture from Thursday night, and Columbia will experience cloudiness and drizzle until Friday afternoon, when a cold front passes through, bringing northerly winds and dry air.  

 

Due to the FROPA on Friday afternoon, a north-northwesterly wind will take hold of Missouri. This wind direction will remain as such throughout the forecast period, due to the meridional flow, and being on the backside of the trough. 

 

The trough axis is accompanied by strong vorticity at 500mb, with the strengthening of a low-pressure system to the north. Most of this vorticity is brought to mid-Missouri on Saturday, with a break overnight, until Sunday morning when more vorticity along the upstream of the system wraps back around to Missouri. 

 

A brief pocket of moisture is evident above mid-Missouri around Saturday night into Sunday morning. This should present solely as cloudiness in Columbia, due to the dry layer below 700mb, as seen on GFS soundings. 

 

-VanUnnik