Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6:00am Thursday

 

Wednesday: Overcast. Snow. High: 26

 

Wednesday Night: Heavy snow. Low: 13

Thursday:  Cloudy. Snow ending by noon. High: 20

 

Thursday Night: Clearing sky. Low: 2

 

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 21

 

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Discussion:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning that will remain in effect until 6am on Thursday. There will be two rounds of snowfall. The first round began last night and will continue into this afternoon. There will be some dry time this afternoon into this evening before the second round of snow falls overnight, ending Thursday afternoon. The majority of the snowfall will be today with totals from the first round expected to be over six inches. Overnight will see another few inches before the snow comes to a halt. Total accumulations for this event are expected to be nearing 10 inches. Once the snow ends, high pressure will build overhead and the sky will begin to clear leading into a clear but cold Friday.

- Kobielusz

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Forecasters: Macko, Kobielusz, Bongard

Date Issued: 2/2/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

As with previous forecasts, the focus remained on the ongoing winter storm over the Midwest. The deterministic model chosen for this forecast was the 06Z run of the GFS. The GFS and the NAM modeled current temperatures with great accuracy, but error lied in Wednesday morning's snow totals. Both the GFS and the NAM predicted the Columbia area to have several more inches of snow than what came to be. Due to this, SREF plumes were examined in order to determine additional snowfall accumulations.

At 250 mb, Wednesday begins with mild southwesterly winds. However, heading into the overnight hours, a significant jet streak drapes across the state of Missouri with winds exceeding 140 knots. This jet streak will maintain its magnitude through much of Thursday before the portion covering central Missouri dips further south, placing Columbia below the track of the jet. The northerly winds just north of the area will bring in much cooler air from Canada, affecting our temperatures later in the week,

500 mb vorticity plots suggest that circulation of varying magnitude ahead of the trough originating from the Four Corners will be prevalent across the Show-Me State until early Friday. Upon the weakening and passage of the trough late Thursday into early Friday, positive vorticity advection (PVA) will weaken substantially. This, in combination with decreased moisture content in the lower levels of the atmosphere, will result in a clearing sky during this time.

Moisture is extremely prevalent at the 700 mb layer and is expected to maintain its strength through Friday. On Friday, this layer will dry out rapidly. Necessary omega forcing will be present Wednesday into early Thursday, assisting in the additional snowfall expected with this system.

The 850 mb level will also continue to be on the moist side. In contrast from the 700 mb level, the 850 mb layer will become increasingly less moist over the span of Thursday night instead of Friday. Easterly winds are expected to persist until Thursday night when they develop a strong northerly component, resulting in the freezing temperatures the region will experience that night.

GFS Skew-T diagrams depict significant dendritic growth layer depth for the overnight hours on Thursday. Consequently, the heaviest snow for this forecast period is expected to fall on Thursday night. Further analysis of SREF plumes lead to the belief that additional accumulations 4-6" of snow are expected, bringing snowfall totals for this system to 8-10". 

- Macko