Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday: Sunny most of the day. Scattered clouds. High: 26

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 3

Saturday: Sunny. High: 32

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 22

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 32

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

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Discussion:

 The sun finally makes a reappearance after days of cloudiness and snow! But don’t let that fool you. Temperatures remain bitter, with highs not quite getting above freezing. Columbia is in for a cold weekend, though with the sky remaining clear, next week should see some warmer temperatures.

-VanUnnik 

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Forecasters: VanUnnik, Schneringer, Bongard

Date Issued: 2/4/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical Discussion: 

A calm few days are ahead for mid-Missouri following the passage of the winter storm system, as the weekend should bring us some colder lows before heating up towards Sunday. For this forecast, a blend of the 06Z GFS and 12Z NAM runs were used, as well as guidance from the SREF and GEFS plumes. The GFS and the NAM both handled the Friday morning lows well, and there was a relatively tight spread from the ensemble members going out through the forecast period.

A strong zonal jet at 250 mb is exiting the region this morning, while behind it the nose of a meridional jet brings northerly flow as it pushes into the region this afternoon. This northerly flow is echoed throughout the upper levels, as strong winds blast out of the northwest down to 700 mb. The cold air brought with this flow, along with lighter surface winds and snowpack, will usher in lower temperatures tonight, approaching 0℉ across mid-Missouri. A dry atmosphere will lead to clear skies for most of today and Saturday.

On Saturday, the winds aloft will shift westerly, as weak surface flow begins from the south. These factors, along with a clear daytime sky, lead to a warmer high on Saturday, and southwest flow at all levels Saturday night will continue this warming trend into Sunday. Finally, an upper level trough over the northern Midwest will bring a surface low through the upper Mississippi valley Sunday night. Future forecasters should watch for the weak attendant cold front approaching the region at that time.

-Schneringer