Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy and breezy. Low: 2

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 19

Friday Night: Clearing. Low: 0

Saturday: Sunny. High: 30

Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 22

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Discussion:

    A welcome period of calmer weather will be in store for the weekend ahead. Latest snow total for Columbia is up to 9.9”! Unfortunately, dangerous cold will greet any early birds the next few days. Temperatures tonight fall near zero degrees with negative wind chills. Mid-MO will stay frigid into the weekend with temperatures below freezing throughout the forecast period. Sunshine will steadily warm things up though, and we may finally push above that freezing mark next week.


- Splater

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Forecasters: Noblitt, Splater, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 2/3/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

    Both the GFS20 and NAM40 were consulted for our forecasting period. Both followed fairly well to the surface map from the NWS with the placements of highs over the Rockies and lows along the South Atlantic-Gulf into the North Atlantic-Appalachians. However, when comparing the GEFS and SREF plumes, the GEFS were slightly closer to the actual temperature, running just a little warmer. Because of this the 12Z GFS was chosen as the model of choice for our forecast. Additionally, the 18Z HRRR was referenced for some assistance with temperature forecasting. Precipitation amounts between the models showed very little (one fifth of an inch at most) anticipated for our region.

    Thursday night will see the upper-level jet streak residing over Missouri push off to our east, bringing calmer air aloft. Some circulation can be seen in the 500mb layer along with some moisture in the 700mb layer throughout the night, however with very little lift at 700mb with a drier 850mb layer should limit any snowfall for the area. Constant northerly winds near the surface will help to keep our temperatures low.

    Friday will have an upper-level, positively tilted trough pass overhead as we sit between two jet streaks. Friday will also see some upper-level instability for Central Missouri as the 500mb, however the strongest areas of circulation remain to our northeast. Drier air and little Omega at 700mb begins to set in from Kansas, bringing an end to our chances for precipitation. The 850mb level will see winds continue from the north and northwest which will continue to keep cooler temperatures.

    Looking towards Friday night, the incoming upper-level jet streak advances towards our northeast as a ridge over the Missouri Basin begins to move towards the Mississippi Valley. With very little circulation, relative humidity, and Omega present, a calmer and clear sky will aid the continued cooling of our surface temperatures as winds continue from the northwest.

    Saturday will see the jet streak start to dip slightly south, with the edge barely covering Boone County. Our vorticity, relative humidity, and Omega all continue to remain low, providing a mostly clear sky throughout the day. Saturday will see a slight shift in our winds towards the west and into the southwest. This will help warm us up after such a frigid streak of temperatures.

    As we move on to Saturday night, the upper-level jet streak transitions southeast, moving closer to our region and bringing some upper-level divergence as well. During the night we will also see increasing areas of circulation present aloft. Nonetheless, continued low relative humidity and Omega should prevent cloud formation throughout the night. Additionally, with the return of northwesterly winds we will see cooler temperatures begin to creep in once again.

- Noblitt