Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday: Clear. High: 62 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 35 

Tuesday: Clear. High: 70 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 40

Wednesday: Clear. High: 70

   

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Discussion:

   

Did the groundhog lie to us? A ridge of high pressure will move east throughout the week leading to above average temperatures that will sweep through mid-Missouri earlier this week. A clear sky will be expected as the high pressure system moves east across the Plains. Plenty of sunshine and light winds will help those temperatures warm up to a more spring-like feel.With minimal cloud cover, nightly temperatures will still have the ability to dip down to a more seasonable average.

 

-Baker

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Forecasters: Baker, Bongard, Gromada

Date Issued: 2/28/2022 10:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecasting period, it seems the weather will be quiet and on a warming trend for mid-Missouri. The model that was chosen for this shift was the GFS because of the cooler temperature output NAM was giving for this week. It seems the NAM was not handling the upper-level ridge as well as the GFS.

This morning, radiative cooling brought lows below freezing. Radiative cooling will bring lows tomorrow a few degrees above freezing before highs climb into temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average. The main issue for this forecasting shift is the warming trend we are entering this week due to upper-level ridging located over went CONUS as of Monday morning. As this ridge pushes east, this brings above average temperatures for mid-Missouri for Monday through Wednesday. Winds this morning at 12Z at 250mb are around 80 knots with an increase in divergence aloft. Winds shift northwest as the upper-level ridge pushes east. Winds stay between 50-60 knots leading up to Wednesday late afternoon. A line of vorticity is seen with a shortwave trough at 18Z Monday reaching from the Four Corners region to the Great Lakes region. This line of vorticity associated with high values pushes into the mid-Missouri region Monday at 21Z. There are no significant values of vertical velocity seen at 700mb, but located in the northern CONUS and southern Canada, an atmospheric river of moisture associated with the upper-level ridge starts to take form Tuesday at 15Z and lasts until the end of the forecast period. Despite seeing the line of vorticity and the atmospheric river to the north, mid-Missouri will see warmer and dry conditions throughout the end of the forecast period.

-Gromada