Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night: Increasing clouds, becoming mostly clear Low: 19

Saturday: Sunny. High: 37

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 30

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: 57

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 42

 

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Discussion:

    This weekend will feature an almost complete reversal of recent pattern trends, as temperatures will begin increasing by a greater margin with each passing day. Overnight lows will already be much than last night, reaching into the upper teens as cloud cover increases, but an early morning cold front will halt temperature increases into Saturday afternoon, keeping our sky clear and highs within the upper 30s once again. After overnight lows dip towards the lower 30s, the warming trend will continue uninhibited through the rest of the weekend, as a Saturday night warm front will shift our winds to the south and allow for highs to skyrocket towards the upper 50s. Warm, southerly flow should continue through Sunday night, with lows not expected to decrease below the lower 40s.

- McDonald

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Forecasters: Ethridge, McDonald, Travis, Watts

Date Issued: 2/18/2022 4:45PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

The NAM40 and GFS20 model runs compared remarkably well for the near future, so both models were consulted for this forecast period. The SREF and GREF plumes, as well as the National Blend of Models plots, all show a tight spread for temperatures during the weekend. The only major issue for this period will be gusty winds on Sunday. Temperatures will increase throughout the weekend and precipitation looks very unlikely.

 

Both the NAM40 and GFS20 at the 250mb level show the trough over Missouri that brought the winter storm on Thursday moving off to our east. As it leaves, flow shifts to northwesterly overnight on Friday then to a more zonal flow, with a southwesterly component overnight Saturday. Zonal flow prevails over the Mid-Mississippi Valley through the rest of the forecast period.

 

At 500mb the vorticity maximum is far to our north over the Great Lakes region. Missouri sees very little circulation until Sunday, when there is a slight increase in motion. This may help to bring us some gusty winds throughout the day on Sunday. Prior to Sunday, things should remain relatively still.

At 700 mb relative humidity is going to drift over the Mid-Missouri region Saturday night at 03Z exiting by Sunday morning. While the Midwest is going to experience a zonal flow, there will be negative omega drifting over Missouri. This is going to result in a rising motion with some cloud coverage appearing throughout the entirety of the forecast but nothing that’ll cause rain. 

Friday night there are going to be weak to moderate winds of 15-30 knots at 850mb drifting over the Mid-Mississippi Valley followed by a ridge Saturday morning with temperatures getting warmer through the weekend.  

A weak cold front is going to come through at the surface causing the forecast to start off a little cool but will warm up towards the end with it being mostly clear, and the sun being out majority of this forecast. As high pressure behind the front moves out, a tight pressure gradient will cause breezy southwesterly winds to bring warmer temperatures this weekend.

- Ethridge, Watts