Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 31

Thursday: Sunny. High: 47

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 39

Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 50

Friday Night: Overcast. Low: 20

 

Thanks to IconArchive.com for the icons! 

====================================================================

Discussion:

 

After a week of exciting winter weather, Mid-Missouri watches the snow melt as a week of seasonally warm temperatures ensues. Wednesday night may experience freezing temperatures, so early morning commuters should continue to be cautious and watch for melted snow that froze into patches of ice overnight. Thursday will see little to no clouds in the sky with temperatures in the mid 40s. Cloud cover begins Thursday night, which will aid in keeping the warm winter temperatures at the surface. Clouds continue to build overnight and will potentially allow for a small drizzle early Friday morning. Chances for this remain low though because of a lack of increased relative humidity throughout the atmosphere. Colder temperatures will follow as this cold front moves through Columbia Friday. Clouds will remain covering the sky until the end of the forecasting period into the weekend.

- Heienickle

=================================================================

Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr

Date Issued: 2/9/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecast, the NAM was preferred over the GFS. Current temperatures at 21Z Wednesday showed the NAM to be closer to the actual air temperature. Likewise, the NAM had a better handle on the overall atmospheric setup. Soundings for both the GFS and NAM were consulted, but the NAM had a better overall picture of current conditions.

A large trough which has persisted over the eastern United States will continue to hold steady as per the 300mb analysis. A weaker jet streak moves overhead at 15Z Friday and exits 09Z Saturday. This jet streak is accompanied by little to no divergence, suggesting a quiet pattern precipitation wise will continue.

Early Wednesday morning a cold front moved through Central Missouri. The circulation associated with that cold front at the 500mb level remains over the region before moving away by 18Z Thursday. Much stronger vorticity arrives after 00Z Saturday and continues through the remainder of the forecast period.

Relative Humidity at the 700mb level is low over Mid-Missouri from the beginning of the forecast period through 03Z on Friday. After 03Z, RH values increase until 00Z Saturday when it all exits to the south. This suggests cloud cover will move through with a cold frontal passage Friday.

Friday’s cold front becomes more clear at the 850mb level in the wind fields. West to west-northwesterly flow will persist over Missouri until around 00Z Friday when those winds begin to veer slightly to the west-southwest, allowing for a brief warm-up until the cold front turns the winds sharply to the north again at 21Z Friday.

Those 850mb winds become pronounced at the surface. Northwesterly winds will turn out of the southwest at 06Z Friday as WAA brings warmer air into Missouri, bringing our temperatures to well above the climatological average for early February. The cold front moves through around 18Z on Friday, replacing the WAA with CAA and sharply dropping temperatures.

Along the frontal passage, soundings show a moist column up to 700mb, suggesting the possibility of some light rain for a several hour period between 15 and 18Z on Friday. Any rain that falls will be light, with only trace amounts possible. As the temperatures will be well above-average, any chances of winter precipitation look to remain well to Missouri’s north

- Meyer