Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday: Sky clearing late. High: 52
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 29
Thursday: Sunny. Building clouds into the evening. High: 45
Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low: 39
Friday: Overcast. Light drizzle possible. High: 53
Discussion:
The bitter cold that affected mid-Missouri late last week has said its farewells--and we're greeted with a trial-run of early spring temperatures! Persistent mild temperatures are a common theme for this forecast, so it wouldn't hurt to keep a light jacket on you as you head to classes later this week. A cold front will push through the area on Friday, but a lack of moisture will keep rain chances low. With the passage of this cold front, wintry temperatures will return for the weekend.
- Macko
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Forecasters: Kobielusz, Macko, Bongard
Date Issued: 2/09/22 10:00 AM CST
Technical discussion:
Both the NAM and the GFS did a good job at depicting the low over southwest Texas; however, the NAM was running about five degrees cold. Ultimately the 06Z run of the GFS was chosen for this forecast because of its accuracy in showing a low in the Great Lakes region and highs in the Rockies, as well as having a better grasp on current temperatures. Soundings were also consulted to aid in the determination of cloud cover and the possibility for precipitation.
An Alberta Clipper is going to be our guiding factor throughout this forecast period. A weak upper-level jet is centered over Missouri currently bringing our winds out of the northwest. This will continue throughout the night as a stronger jet core from the northern Plains moves into Missouri bringing with it mild upper-level divergence and a shift in winds to the west.
Mid Missouri will see a moderate amount of vorticity throughout the forecast period, but a lack of moisture in the upper levels will keep us dry throughout Thursday. Moisture starts to increase overnight into Friday coupled with positive vertical velocity. Soundings show a deep moisture profile heading into Friday: along with high levels of positive Omega. This moisture profile continues to extend down towards the surface throughout the day on Friday. All the ingredients for rainfall are there, but a dry layer close to the surface will prevent any significant rainfall from reaching the surface. That being said, the possibility for light drizzle cannot be completely ruled out.
A low-level jet core is stationed over Missouri ushering in warmer air from the west. This will keep temperatures above average until a cold front moves through on Friday evening. Our high on Friday will be observed earlier in the day than normal ahead of the cold front.
-Kobielusz
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