Thursday, February 10, 2022

Thursday, February 10th, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field



Thursday Night:
Scattered clouds. Low: 39



Friday:
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High: 50




Friday Night:
Clearing sky. Low: 16




Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: 26

 


Saturday Night:
Building cloud cover throughout the night. Low: 20

 


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Discussion:
 
    With the impressive snowfall from last week still melting across Central Missouri thanks to some mild winter weather, cooler temperatures more befitting of the season will return for Columbia. Thursday night will see the end of our warm streak as Friday brings in a cold front along with some scatter showers across the region. This cold front will pass though slowly early in the afternoon and will set colder air on top of Columbia as it continues to our southeast. This sets us up for a frosty weekend as Friday night through Saturday night are expected to remain below freezing. Some cloud cover will begin to reform over the region late Saturday night as we round out the forecasting period. Due to the lack of saturation near the surface Friday, precipitation totals are expected to be trace.
 
- Noblitt


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Forecasters: Noblitt, Splater, Vochatzer

Date Issued: 2/10/2022 5:00PM CST


Technical Discussion: 
 

    Various models were consulted for this forecast due to slight variability in impacts from an approaching cold front. These include the GFS and NAM as well as sounding data from both. GEFS and SREF plumes were analyzed to assess uncertainties going forward.

 

    An upper level trough can presently be seen at 250 mb with its axis just to the southeast of Mid-Missouri. Zonal flow will return to the area as this exits tonight but an approaching disturbance will shift winds to the north on Friday. Divergence in the upper levels will move in from the north early Friday morning as a cold front swings through the region. This, coupled with vorticity advection, should allow for a round of light rain to start off Friday. An increase in RH throughout the mid and upper levels will also support showers, but surface conditions remain stubbornly dry. The greatest window for precipitation will be from 12Z to 18Z Friday as these conditions align, though dry lower levels will likely keep accumulation to a trace.

 

    The uncertainty in this forecast dwells in the timing and intensity of the colder airmass behind the front. Highs are poised to reach the low 50s on Friday before the cooler air begins to impinge on the region. The GFS trends warmer throughout this period, with low temperatures Friday night forecast in the low 20s; NAM is considerably colder, diving to the mid teens. These uncertainties should be noted and further assessed going forward.

 

    Soundings dry out late Friday and clear conditions will persist through Saturday. Northerly flow will keep temperatures below freezing and uncertainties in the strength of the cold air linger at this stage of the forecast as well. Mid-MO will likely dwell in the 20s on Saturday but an approaching disturbance may bring more changes.

 

    Another shift in wind direction can be noted late Saturday as an alberta clipper approaches from the north. Our area should remain dry from a lack of moisture though this will be worth watching for impacts on temperatures next week.


- Splater

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