Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 3
Saturday: Sunny. High: 36
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 25
Sunday: Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High: 40
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Low: 20
Discussion:
It might be time for you to put your snow boots back in the closet for now because the sun is making a reappearance. Even though the sky is not going to be as cloudy, we are still set for some cold temperatures in Columbia overnight Friday night. However, because of the increased sunshine, we should be getting warmer temperatures going into Saturday and Sunday. There is a cold front that is going to be coming through Sunday evening, but because of little moisture sticking around it won't cause anything more than cloudy skies overnight Sunday.
- Watts
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Forecasters: Watts, Ethridge, McDonald, Travis
Date Issued: 2/04/22 06:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
The focus for this forecast is on the frigid temperatures in the region overnight Friday, as well as a weak cold front that will pass over central Missouri on Sunday night. The GFS model was used for this forecast, although the NAM was in general agreement with the GFS.
At the 250 hPa level, the back end of a longwave trough will be moving over the region and bringing northerly polar winds into Missouri overnight Friday. On Saturday, the flow shifts from westerly to southwesterly bringing warmer air with it. Sunday evening, however, northwesterly flow will bring some colder air back to the region, keeping the region near freezing through Monday night.
Circulation is negligent throughout the weekend until Sunday night when vorticity at the 500 hPa level increases modestly. The bulk of this energy should pass to the north of Missouri, but the associated trough will likely create the opportunity for active weather to occur through early Monday morning. Any chances of precipitation or other notable weather will diminish later into Monday as Missouri becomes centered on the backside of the trough.
The 700 hPa humidity levels show that the Midwest will be mostly dry through the next 72 hours, the exception being the passage of the aforementioned trough from Sunday into Monday. Nevertheless, the increase in humidity at this point looks to be marginal, and the chances of any kind of precipitation should remain very low throughout the forecast period. Vorticity levels appear to increase proportionally to humidity, with the greatest measurements arising from Sunday into Monday morning. Values are respectable, but without an equal level of humidity alongside it, deviation from average patterns is unlikely
850 hPa shows a gradual warming trend through this weekend, bringing temperatures into the middle to upper 30s by Sunday afternoon. Progress is halted though on Sunday night, as a weak cold front enters from the northwest, serving more to halt temperature rises rather than reduce them. Colder air masses appear to narrowly miss Missouri to the north, with southerly winds from the southwest keeping them at bay.
The GFS model sounding shows upper and lower layers remaining dry throughout Saturday with a slight increase in moisture on Sunday in the lower levels. Precipitation will be highly unlikely as the moisture stays in a shallow region between the surface and the 850 hPa level.
The region can expect and a much milder and dryer weekend after the snowstorm earlier this week and Friday nights low temperature.
- McDonald, Ethridge
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