Winter Weather Advisory until February 25, 12:00 AM CST

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 18

Thursday: Overcast. Sleet in the early morning, changing to snow by mid-morning. Snow moving out by evening. High: 25

Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low: 15

Friday: Few clouds. High: 30

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 17

 

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Discussion:

For the third week in a row, Mizzou sees potential for a snowy Thursday. Wednesday afternoon sees cold temperatures with wind chill and overcast sky conditions. As a low pressure system moves East from Colorado into Missouri, winter weather becomes a greater potential. The chances for precipitation greatly increase Thursday morning around 9am, where a sleet and snow mix is likely to fall. Sleet will quickly dissipate as temperatures continue to drop, and snow begins to become heavier around noon. The chance for snowfall continues throughout the afternoon into the early evening. The predicted sleet amounts to 0.5 inches and snowfall amounts to 1 to 3 inches for Thursday. Those who are driving should take caution and drive slow, as roads may be slippery throughout the day. Columbia will dry out as the system moves to the Northeast. Thursday night will begin to clear as cold air advection strengthens in Columbia. Friday will see sunshine as sky conditions begin to clear. There will be a few clouds in the early afternoon. A high pressure system moves over Missouri from the West setting up calm weather for the weekend. 

- Heienickle

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Forecasters: Meyer, Heienickle, Orr

Date Issued: 2/23/2022 5:00PM CST

Technical Discussion: 

 

For this forecast the NAM was used over the GFS for a variety of reasons. Many models vastly overperformed the temperatures today, putting central Missouri into the 20s when we remained in the 10s all day. However, the NAM was closer to our current temperature and had a better handle on the precipitation falling over southern Missouri while writing this forecast. Once we got to sounding analysis, both the NAM and the GFS were used to determine timing of precipitation and the specific time of changeover.

Beginning at the 250-mb level the jet stream is parked right over the central United States, with wind values between 90-170kts throughout the forecast period. Not a whole lot of divergence in the upper-levels with the exception of this evening.

Vorticity also remains focused to Missouri’s west and south, not fully entering the state until Friday as per 500-mb analysis. The trough associated with the vorticity ejects into Missouri around Friday at 00Z, and with it large amounts of circulation pass overhead.

The 700-mb analysis perfectly outlined the conditions in terms of RH and current precip. With the higher RH amounts focused near and south of I-44, that is where we find the precipitation falling so far. Columbia has been focused on the far northern edge of these higher RH values, but still too dry to see any precipitation. At 21Z on Wednesday, Columbia has remained snow-free but Jefferson City has at least a dusting signifying the cut-off of higher RH values. Higher RH values are absent over Columbia until 15Z on Thursday, meaning we likely will remain dry through the night until Thursday morning.

Soundings from the GFS and NAM reinforce the idea of the dry layer continuing through the night into Thursday morning. The GFS gets colder with the absence of any warm nose, while the NAM keeps a warm nose through the morning. While there is the possibility of sleet mixing in when precipitation begins around 12-15Z, any sleet is expected to switch to snowfall by 18Z. Snowfall amounts should be light with amounts ranging from 1-3”, while sleet amounts should remain less than .25".

At the 850-mb and the surface, a cold front can be identified stretching from Ohio into Oklahoma. This front stalls over southern Missouri through Thursday before moving away with the trough ejection. After the cold front begins to progress eastward, CAA moves in reinforcing the colder air already present over Missouri on Friday.

 

- Meyer