Monday, February 7, 2022

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field




 

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: 36





Monday Night:
Partly cloudy. Low: 27

 

 




Tuesday:
Partly cloudy. High: 54





Tuesday Night
: Partly cloudy. Low: 30

 




We
dnesday: Partly cloudy. High: 45

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Discussion:  

 Mid-Missouri saw about 8 inches of snow last week some of which is still lingering around due to the cold temperatures we have seen. We should thaw out this week as we are going to see above average temperatures for the mid-Missouri region. A cold front passed last night leaving us with a bit of fog this morning in some areas of the region. With no rain in the forecast and above average temperatures Tuesday, winds coming from the southwest will be bringing in warmer air. These warmer temperatures will be be sticking around for a few days. Lows for Monday and Tuesday should hover below freezing so take caution as roads could refreeze from any snow melt Tuesday.

-Gromada


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Forecasters: Baker, Gromada, Bongard

Date Issued: 2/7/2022 10:00AM CST

Technical discussion:  

For this forecasting period, NAM model run 12Z along with skew-t temperature guidance was used as they were handing temperature better than other products. The problem of the day consists of the ridge of high pressure that will cover the upper Mississippi River Valley area resulting in zonal flow for the beginning of the week.

A shortwave trough moved through the area, as light winds this Monday morning are coming out of the northwest. This will continue to push colder air into the area and throughout the night going into Tuesday as temperatures will moderate to a seasonal average. Light fog could be seen this morning in evidence of the frontal passage, but will clear up with sunrise. This is caused by the warmer air moving over the snow that is already on the ground advecting moisture into the air.

The positively tilted trough that gave us our winter weather last week will push east leading to zonal flow as high pressure floods the area. Along with zonal flow, calm conditions are expected throughout the week. As the trough decays to zonal flow, the jet stream at 250mb clearly shows the split of the jet streams returning back to polar and sub-tropical positioning.

Monday morning's frontal passage leaves upper-level divergence in its path weakening into Tuesday evening that will contribute to the partly cloudy conditions we will see over the next couple of days. This is also evident in 700mb relative humidity map as moisture currently over mid-Missouri will dry out as result of northwest flow.

However, there is not a lot of spin and lift taking place that could stir these conditions up. A line of high values of vorticity is seen moving across the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday, but due to the drier, cold conditions mixed with high pressure, conditions should stay calm.

-Baker

 

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