Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 30

 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High: 54

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 30

 

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: 47

 

 

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 27

 

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Discussion:  

    As we recover from last week's winter weather, slightly warmer temperatures are ahead. While our temperatures may be cool today, courtesy of a cold front that moved through last night, they will begin to warm up over the next couple of days. This warm up is due to a low over the Great Lakes. Some clouds are expected over the next couple of days, so our current piles of snow may now melt very fast. That melting snow, along with some below freezing temperatures at night, may cause some slick roads in the mornings, so watch out! No precipitation is expected through Wednesday.

- McMullen

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Forecasters: McMullen, Millsap, Cochran

Date Issued: 2/7/2022 5:00 PM CST

Technical discussion: 

The GFS 12Z run was utilized in the creation of this forecast as 300 mb height contours had a better overall handling up upper air water vapor signatures. However, the model’s temperature output tended to overshoot observed temperatures. Therefore, the NAM was also considered for guidance in this regard seeing that its temperature output was closer to the observed values. The main problem indicated by the model output included an oscillating pattern between a shortwave ridge and a longwave trough, which would be indicative of a shift between zonal and meridional flow throughout the forecast period.

The 250 mb height and wind map is showing relatively zonal flow aloft, which should lend itself to calm conditions through the first half of the week with the only exception being a shortwave ridge that forms on Tuesday. This correlates with a brief period of WAA coupled with southwesterly winds at the surface as seen on the MSLP and thickness map, bringing temperatures near a seasonal average. Model soundings provide further evidence of calm conditions – a wide berth between temperature/dew point plots on Monday night, which only slightly narrows through the rest of the time period.

Wednesday will also bring calm conditions, though a burst in circulation at 500 mb will make itself present. This spike in vorticity is attached to a passing low pressure center to the north, but it is unlikely that this will produce any active weather systems in Missouri. This is due to CAA and a WNW wind resuming Wednesday morning and inhibiting a significant amount of vertical lift from taking place. Moisture profiles at 700 mb indicated that there may be a slight increase in cloud cover that day, albeit only partially.

Temperatures on Wednesday will begin to cool once again, though not a drastic change. Temperatures will continue to drop as the incoming trough becomes more accentuated and winds shift to a northwesterly direction through Wednesday night. This temperature change will become more drastic on Thursday for future forecasters keeping track of that day.

- Millsap